The Value of Custom Projections in Fantasy Baseball
With the increasing availability of advanced projection systems, many fantasy baseball analysts opt to rely on these pre-built models. However, I remain committed to creating my own projections each winter. The time invested in this process not only deepens my understanding of the player pool but also allows me to uncover hidden gems and reassess the value of well-known players. This year, as I built my 2025 projections, several surprising conclusions emerged. Here are some of the most intriguing insights.
Garrett Crochet: A Pitcher on the Rise
Garrett Crochet, the Boston Red Sox right-hander, is being drafted as the eighth starting pitcher (SP8) in Yahoo leagues with an average draft position (ADP) of 39.8. Despite this high ADP, I find it difficult to justify placing him so low on my list. Last season, Crochet struck out an astounding 209 batters in 146 innings, which projects to a remarkable 243 strikeouts if he pitches 170 innings. Additionally, his ERA estimators were all around one run lower than his actual 3.58 ERA, indicating potential for even better performance. While every pitcher carries some injury risk, Crochet managed to stay off the injured list last year, and his resilience and effectiveness make him a valuable asset that will likely find a place on many of my 2025 teams.
Trea Turner: The Undervalued Sparkplug
Trea Turner, now with the Philadelphia Phillies, may be the most undervalued early-round pick in this year’s drafts. Despite playing only 121 games in 2024, Turner should not be considered injury-prone, given that he missed a total of just 22 games over the previous four seasons. His on-field production remains strong, with a .295 batting average that closely matches his career mark. Turner also maintained consistent rates of runs, homers, and RBIs. While his stolen base count was lower than usual, he managed 10 steals in 33 games before a hamstring injury sidelined him. Upon returning, he stole five bases in September, suggesting he can still reach the 30-steal plateau in 2025. With his proven ability to get on base and contribute across multiple categories, Turner is a top-15 hitter and should be a priority in early-round selections.
Jonathan India: A New Lease on Life
Jonathan India, now with the Kansas City Royals, could be a perfect fit for the team’s lineup. At 28 years old, India has never been a high-power hitter, often struggling to make hard contact. However, his ability to get on base is exceptional, with a 12.6% walk rate and a 19.6% whiff rate last year. Kauffman Stadium, while not enhancing power, provides ample opportunities for base hits, which aligns well with India’s strengths. As the leadoff hitter in front of generational talent Bobby Witt Jr. and effective slugger Salvador Pérez, India has a good chance to match or even exceed the 98 runs he scored as a rookie in 2021. This combination of consistent on-base performance and a supportive lineup makes him a solid mid-round pick with high upside.
William Contreras: A Catcher to Covet
William Contreras, the Milwaukee Brewers’ catcher, is a standout in this year’s projections. His ADP of 46.3 seems a bit too high, but my projections rank him no lower than third among catchers in any of the five standard categories. This includes the top spot in runs scored and batting average, which is consistent with his performance last year when he was among the top four catchers in all categories. I see no signs of regression, and his all-around contributions make him a valuable asset. Whether you’re drafting for a deep league or a shallower one, Contreras should be on your radar, and his current ADP might even be a round too late, given his projected impact.
Ketel Marte: A Cautionary Tale
Ketel Marte, the Arizona Diamondbacks’ versatile infielder, was a staple on many of my teams last year, often selected between picks 75-100. However, his current ADP of 26.4 has me reconsidering his value. Marte’s 36 homers in 2024 were a significant departure from his previous home run pace, which was about 20 per 162 games from 2020-2023. Additionally, his speed has been inconsistent, with no season recording more than 12 steals. Expecting the Diamondbacks to replicate their league-leading offensive output from last year is also a stretch. I project Marte to hit 27 homers, 86 runs, 86 RBIs, 6 steals, and bat around .282. While these numbers are solid, they don’t justify a top-30 pick, and I suggest looking elsewhere for a more impactful early-round selection.
Scary Speedsters: A Year to Focus on Sluggers
The stolen base category is always a critical consideration in fantasy baseball, but this year, the landscape is particularly uncertain. Last season, only six players managed to swipe 40 or more bags, and most of these players are due for regression. For instance, Shohei Ohtani is returning to a starting pitcher role, and prior to 2024, José Ramírez hadn’t stolen 30 bases since 2018. Brice Turang showed promise but faded as a hitter, José Caballero is likely to be a utility player, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. continues to be an injury risk. Given these factors, it might be wise to focus on acquiring skilled sluggers early in your drafts and then supplement your lineup with several players capable of stealing 15-30 bases. This strategy allows you to build a strong foundation while still addressing the speed category effectively. With nearly 100 hitters projected to steal 15 or more bases, you have plenty of options to chip away at this category without overpaying for the few players expected to reach the 40-steal mark.
