The Appeal of Bounce-Back Players in Fantasy Baseball
Every year, bounce-back players offer some of the most valuable opportunities in fantasy baseball drafts. Fantasy managers, often influenced by recent performance, can be quick to overlook players with strong career track records who had a rough year. However, savvy managers recognize that certain factors, such as injuries or bad luck, can provide a compelling narrative for a rebound. By identifying players who have a viable excuse for their poor performance, managers can secure high-potential talent at a fraction of the usual cost. This article highlights seven players who fit this profile and could be strong candidates for a bounce-back season in 2025.
Bo Bichette: The Injured Shortstop with a Bright Future
Bo Bichette of the Toronto Blue Jays has a reputation for consistent performance, maintaining a batting average above .290 until his 2024 season. Last year, Bichette’s season was marred by a calf injury and a fractured finger, which limited him to just 15 games after June 15. Despite these setbacks, Bichette showed a promising start in May, batting .280 with 3 home runs. Entering a contract year at the age of 27, Bichette is likely to be highly motivated to prove his worth. With a solid track record and the benefit of youth, it’s reasonable to expect that his 2024 performance was an anomaly rather than a sign of decline. At an affordable draft position (Yahoo ADP: 109.6), Bichette represents a compelling value pick for fantasy managers.
Josh Lowe: Overcoming First-Half Sluggishness
Josh Lowe of the Tampa Bay Rays had a disappointing 2024 season, with his OPS dropping by 142 points. However, his performance in the second half offers hope. After the All-Star break, Lowe hit .262 with 5 home runs and 17 stolen bases in 62 games, showcasing the power-speed threat that made him a standout in 2023. Lowe’s skills are evident in his top 25% rankings in average sprint speed and average exit velocity. The key to his success in 2025 will be improving his 31.8% strikeout rate. With his dynamic abilities and the potential to repeat his 20-homer, 32-steal performance, Lowe (Yahoo ADP: 187.6) is a player worth considering late in your draft.
Nolan Jones: The Young Outfielder with Coors Field Advantage
Nolan Jones, now with the Colorado Rockies, is a player who saw a significant decline in 2024. Limited to 79 games due to a back injury, Jones experienced a major regression in his batted-ball data, with his average exit velocity dropping to 88.2 mph and a barrel rate of just 5.9%. Despite this, Jones’s age (26) and the hitter-friendly environment of Coors Field make him an intriguing bounce-back candidate. Fantasy managers have largely abandoned Jones, but his potential to return to the 20-20 plateau (20 home runs and 20 stolen bases) should not be overlooked. At a late draft position (Yahoo ADP: 242.6), Jones offers a high-reward opportunity.
Christopher Morel: The Unlucky Hitter with Upside
Christopher Morel of the Tampa Bay Rays had one of the unluckiest seasons in baseball in 2024. His actual batting average, slugging percentage, and weighted on-base average (wOBA) were significantly lower than his expected marks (xBA, xSLG, xwOBA). Morel produced career-best rates in walks (10.0%) and strikeouts (26.0%), but his average exit velocity dropped to 89.2 mph. The Rays’ move to a homer-friendly park could be a boon for Morel, potentially helping him reach 30 home runs. At a late draft position (Yahoo ADP: 247.7), Morel presents a high-ceiling option for managers willing to take a chance on his rebound.
Thairo Estrada: The Undrafted Infielder with Contact Skills
Thairo Estrada, now with the Colorado Rockies, saw his draft position plummet after a slow start and a wrist injury in 2024. Despite being undrafted in many leagues, Estrada has a strong ability to make contact and could benefit from playing at Coors Field. His track record, combined with the power-friendly environment, makes him a candidate for a strong rebound. At age 29, Estrada has plenty of experience and the potential to exceed 10 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a .255 batting average. For managers looking for a late-round steal, Estrada (Yahoo ADP: 232.5) is a player to consider.
Justin Verlander: The Veteran Pitcher with a Fresh Start
Predicting a bounce-back year for a 42-year-old pitcher is a bold move, but Justin Verlander of the San Francisco Giants could be just that. Last season, Verlander’s ERA was 1.70 runs higher than his expected ERA (xERA), indicating he was one of baseball’s unluckiest pitchers. Verlander’s ability to limit walks and his success at power-suppressing Oracle Park make him a strong candidate for a rebound. While his age poses a risk, his track record and the favorable home park could see him improve on a per-inning basis. At a late draft position (Yahoo ADP: 249.8), Verlander offers a high-reward opportunity for managers willing to take the chance.
David Bednar: The Reliever with a High Ceiling
David Bednar of the Pittsburgh Pirates had a dominant run from 2021 to 2023, posting a 2.25 ERA before a significant decline in 2024. His struggles were attributed to unusual issues with home runs and a loss of control, compounded by an oblique strain that sidelined him for nearly a month. Despite these setbacks, Bednar’s fastball averaged a career-best 97.3 mph last season. With the Pirates not bolstering their bullpen this offseason, Bednar remains a top save candidate. At a mid-late draft position (Yahoo ADP: 170.4), Bednar represents a strong value pick for managers looking to bolster their relief corps.
