Resisting Overreactions in Spring Training
Resisting the urge to overreact to spring training performances is a critical aspect of managing a dynasty fantasy baseball roster. While it’s important to stay informed and vigilant about potential breakthroughs, it’s equally essential to avoid making impulsive decisions based on a few weeks of preseason action. However, certain performances and developments can provide valuable insights, especially when it comes to intriguing prospects making waves in Florida and Arizona. This week’s dynasty stock watch column highlights a few players whose stock is on the rise and others whose stock is falling due to various factors.
Seven Up
Cam Smith, 3B/OF, Astros
Cam Smith, the centerpiece of the Kyle Tucker trade, has been a standout in Grapefruit League action. Batting an impressive .571 (4-for-7) with four extra-base hits, including two home runs, in just five games, Smith is proving why he was a highly regarded draft pick. Despite being ranked 65th in Rotoworld’s latest dynasty rankings, Smith’s fast track to the majors is becoming more evident. He raced through three minor league levels last year, finishing at Double-A Tennessee. The Astros might be ready to give him a taste of the big leagues by the end of spring training, or he could spend a few weeks in the upper minors. Regardless, Smith is closer to the majors than many dynasty managers anticipated, and he projects as a four-category impact player, potentially starting at third base with Isaac Paredes moving to second.
Curtis Mead, 2B, Rays
Curtis Mead is a post-hype breakthrough candidate who has revitalized his prospects this spring. After struggling with a .613 OPS over the past two seasons, Mead has been one of the brightest standouts in the Grapefruit League, batting a remarkable .714 (10-for-14) with one homer and one steal in six games. Mead’s bat-to-ball skills have always been evident, but translating them to the big leagues has been a challenge. The move to the hitter-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field could further boost his offensive potential. While it’s unclear how he’ll fit into the Rays’ crowded infield, Mead’s strong spring performance could force the team to find a spot for him.
Drake Baldwin, C, Braves
With veteran Sean Murphy expected to miss 4-6 weeks due to a cracked left rib, Drake Baldwin has an excellent opportunity to start the season as the Braves’ primary catcher. Baldwin, ranked 56th in Rotoworld’s latest dynasty rankings, performed well in the upper minors last year, slashing .276/.370/.423 with 16 home runs and two steals in 551 plate appearances. The Braves might bring in a veteran stopgap, but Baldwin’s strong spring performance could solidify his position. While he may not be a fantasy superstar, Baldwin should contribute in power and counting stats without being a batting average liability.
Other Notable Risers
Kyle Finnegan, RP, Nationals
Kyle Finnegan’s return as Washington’s primary closer, after signing a one-year, $6 million contract, is a significant development for dynasty purposes. Despite being a non-tender last offseason, Finnegan recorded 38 saves last year with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. With limited competition for the role, Finnegan is a top-25 relief pitcher in dynasty rankings and could provide valuable save opportunities for the Nationals, even in a rebuilding season.
Dalton Rushing, C/OF, Dodgers
Dalton Rushing’s stock is rising due to Dodgers catcher Will Smith’s ongoing ankle issues. Smith has been dealing with a bone bruise since last June, which could open the door for Rushing to play a prominent role. While it’s unlikely he’ll make the opening roster, any extended absence from Smith could result in Rushing getting significant at-bats. Rushing, ranked 28th in Rotoworld’s latest dynasty rankings, is poised to be an immediate impact player once he gets an extended opportunity.
Victor Scott II, OF, Cardinals
Victor Scott II is another potential breakout candidate, largely due to his game-changing speed and standout center field defense. While he struggled early last year, Scott showed improvement, hitting .244 (21-for-86) with two homers and three steals over his final 32 games. His speed and defensive prowess make him a valuable asset, and with a slight step forward at the plate, he could be a 40-plus stolen base threat.
Three Down
Luis Gil, SP, Yankees
Luis Gil’s stock has taken a hit after he was diagnosed with a high-grade lat strain, forcing him to miss the opening two months of the regular season. Gil, the 2022 AL Rookie of the Year, will be shut down from throwing for at least six weeks and will require additional time to build up his arm strength. While it’s not a major long-term concern, the injury could affect his performance and future durability. Fantasy managers should monitor his recovery closely, and there’s a buy-low opportunity for those in a long-term rebuilding phase.
Parker Meadows, OF, Tigers
Parker Meadows’ return is uncertain due to an ongoing upper-arm nerve issue that has kept him out of spring training activities. Tigers manager A.J. Hinch hasn’t ruled him out for Opening Day, but time is running out for Meadows to begin ramping up. His swing adjustment last year led to a strong finish, but the nerve issue could linger. Dynasty managers should expect Meadows to start the season on the injured list.
Hyeseong Kim, 2B/OF, Dodgers
Hyeseong Kim’s path to the big leagues has narrowed as he continues to make swing adjustments. Despite his defensive prowess, the Dodgers’ depth at second base and in the outfield means Kim might need more time to acclimate. While it’s not a substantial hit to his long-term fantasy appeal, dynasty managers should note that Kim might spend more time at Triple-A to refine his swing.
Dark Horses
Robert Hassell III, OF, Nationals
“Bobby Barrels” Hassell III has shown promise this spring, batting .409 (9-for-22) with four extra-base hits and one steal. Despite his stock dropping in recent years due to injuries and contact issues, Hassell’s power-speed combination remains intact. A strong performance at Triple-A Rochester could bolster his case for a promotion to the big leagues. His proximity to the majors and prospect pedigree make him a late 400’s player in the upcoming dynasty rankings.
Kumar Rocker, SP, Rangers
Kumar Rocker’s path to the big leagues has narrowed due to his struggles in early-spring outings. After a dominant run in the upper minors and a strong finish last year, Rocker has allowed eight runs over two innings in consecutive Cactus League appearances. With a healthy rotation, Rocker might start the season at Triple-A Round Rock. While it’s not a significant hit to his dynasty appeal, fantasy managers might have to wait a bit longer for his season debut.
Conclusion
Spring training provides valuable insights into player prospects, but it’s crucial to approach these performances with a balanced perspective. While some players like Cam Smith, Curtis Mead, and Drake Baldwin are showing signs of breaking through, others like Luis Gil, Parker Meadows, and Hyeseong Kim face challenges that could affect their seasons. Keeping a watchful eye and making informed decisions will be key to navigating the upcoming fantasy baseball season.
