Spring Training Buzz: Separating Signal from Noise
With spring training contests in full swing in Florida and Arizona, it’s tempting to get carried away by the initial excitement and flashy Statcast data. However, it’s crucial for fantasy managers to approach these early snapshots with a healthy dose of skepticism. The overwhelming amount of data available can often lead to overreactions, especially when dealing with small sample sizes. Much of this data turns out to be narrative-driven spin that ultimately has little tangible impact, particularly for dynasty leagues. This column aims to break down some early-season developments that could have significant dynasty ramifications, both positive and negative, focusing on players like Sandy Alcantara, Bryce Eldridge, Chase Dollander, Alejandro Rosario, Rafael Devers, Sean Manaea, Dustin May, and Zac Veen.
Three Players to Watch on the Rise
Sandy Alcantara, SP, Marlins
Sandy Alcantara, the 29-year-old former fantasy ace, is showing promising signs in his Grapefruit League debut. Averaging 98.8 mph on his fastball and flashing his trademark low-90s changeup, Alcantara appears to be back to his pre-Tommy John surgery form. According to Craig Mish of SportsGrid, Miami’s front office is unlikely to impose any restrictions on Alcantara this season, making it realistic to project him for around 175 innings. While his strikeout potential isn’t elite, a return to upper-echelon fantasy status seems increasingly likely. Alcantara’s ranking has already seen a significant boost to 151 in Rotoworld’s latest Top 500 Dynasty Rankings, but I would feel comfortable placing him in the 100-115 range, aligning him with pitchers like Bailey Ober, Jared Jones, Framber Valdez, Bubba Chandler, and Max Fried.
Bryce Eldridge, 1B, Giants
Bryce Eldridge, the 20-year-old slugger, made a tremendous impression with a 450-foot home run off Rangers reliever Matt Festa, featuring an exit velocity of 110.4 mph. Eldridge, ranked 12th among Giants prospects and 74th overall in Rotoworld’s latest dynasty rankings, may not arrive in San Francisco until later this season, but his elite batted ball metrics and bat-to-ball skills are rare for a player of his stature. Eldridge’s performance last year, including a .292/.374/.516 batting line with 23 home runs and six steals in 519 plate appearances across four minor-league levels, speaks volumes. With only veterans LaMonte Wade Jr. and Wilmer Flores blocking his path, a strong start in the upper minors could propel him into the top 50 dynasty rankings by the All-Star break.
Chase Dollander, SP, Rockies
Chase Dollander made a strong case for breaking camp with the Rockies with a dazzling Cactus League debut against the Giants. He recorded three strikeouts and allowed only one run over two innings, showcasing his ability to attack the zone and rebound from adversity. As the ninth-overall pick from the 2023 MLB Draft, Dollander is one of the most talented pitchers giving it a shot at Coors Field early. While the unique challenges of pitching in Denver may test him, Dollander’s performance has significantly bolstered his case. Currently ranked 181st in Rotoworld’s dynasty rankings, a continued strong showing in spring outings could move him into the top-130, aligning him withAaron Nola, Logan Webb, Freddy Peralta, Bryan Woo, and Luis Castillo.
Players on the Decline
Alejandro Rosario, SP, Rangers
The news of Alejandro Rosario undergoing season-ending right elbow surgery is a significant setback for dynasty managers. Rosario, who was one of the fastest-rising pitching prospects in baseball last year, had an impressive 2022 season, posting a sparkling 2.24 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and a 129/13 K/BB ratio across 88 1/3 innings. The Rangers’ front office’s decision to encourage him to elevate his upper-90s fastball and use his hard-biting low-90s splitter contributed to his success. Despite his talent, Rosario’s long-term stock will take a hit. He’s still worth holding onto in deeper formats, but don’t expect him to reach the majors until late 2026 at the earliest.
Rafael Devers, 3B, Red Sox
The physical status of Rafael Devers is a cause for concern as he begins the Grapefruit League action. Not being ready to play third base due to ongoing shoulder rehab is a red flag. Devers, who has consistently graded out as one of the worst third basemen defensively over the past five years, faces increased competition from Alex Bregman and top prospect Krisitian Campbell. The mental adjustment to DH-ing every day, a role that has been challenging for elite hitters in the past, adds to the uncertainty. While I’m hesitant to drop Devers significantly in the next dynasty rankings update, he is likely to slip a few spots, placing him around 30th overall at the position, behind Junior Caminero and Austin Riley.
Sean Manaea, SP, Mets
The Mets received more unfortunate news with Sean Manaea opening the regular season on the injured list due to a right oblique strain. This is a setback for the 33-year-old southpaw, who signed a three-year, $75 million contract with the Mets in December 2022. Manaea had a stellar 2022 season, posting a 3.47 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and a 184/63 K/BB ratio over 181 2/3 innings. The long-term implications aren’t severe, but his appeal entering the 2025 campaign will be diminished. The Mets will now rely heavily on Clay Holmes, who looked sharp in his spring debut with his new kick-changeup and cutter. Holmes’s performance could become a critical factor for New York’s pitching depth.
Dark Horses to Watch
Dustin May, SP, Dodgers
Dustin May, a 27-year-old former top pitching prospect, is making a strong case for breaking camp with the Dodgers. Despite his durability issues and Los Angeles’ deep starting pitching roster, May’s impressive Cactus League debut has raised eyebrows. He showed no signs of rust, averaging 94-95 mph on his fastball, and is a name to watch closely over the next few weeks. Currently ranked 416th in Rotoworld’s dynasty rankings, May’s performance could see a significant boost in his value if he continues to excel in spring outings.
Zac Veen, OF, Rockies
Zac Veen, the 23-year-old former first-round pick from the 2020 MLB Draft, is challenging expectations to become Colorado’s starting right fielder. Veen has put his power-speed combination on display early in Cactus League action, tallying one home run and two steals in just three games. While Jordan Beck is the frontrunner for the starting right field job, Veen’s strong start could force his way onto the Rockies’ Opening Day roster. If he continues to make noise in Arizona, Veen’s dynasty value could rise significantly.
