Embracing the Tough Choices in Fantasy Baseball
There are two yearly certainties I face when constructing my "Fade" column. First, I never include late-round players in this list; it’s simply too easy to criticize choices made in the latter stages of a draft. Second, the process often leaves a bittersweet taste in my mouth, as many of these players are, or have been, stars. No one enjoys predicting potential disappointments, but that’s the nature of the game. Fantasy baseball is all about balancing enthusiasm and pragmatism, and it’s entirely possible that a player I advise against could be a top pick for you. After all, that’s what makes the game so engaging and unpredictable.
Jacob deGrom: A Star Pitcher in Decline?
Jacob deGrom, the ace of the Texas Rangers, is my signature fade for this year. If you’re a Mets fan, you know the drill: deGrom’s starts were must-see TV, a masterclass in control and power. His two Cy Young seasons are etched in the minds of baseball enthusiasts, and his 2021 performance, with a 1.08 ERA and a 0.554 WHIP over just 15 starts, was nothing short of miraculous. Those stats are more akin to a backyard Wiffle Ball game than Major League Baseball. However, deGrom’s recent injury history is a significant concern. Forearm tightness, elbow issues, and a second Tommy John surgery have left him with a lot of question marks. As he enters his age-37 season, I find it hard to justify his high ADP inside the top 50 picks. While I hope he proves me wrong, the risk of injury is just too high. Even if he returns to form, the likelihood of him pitching more than 100 innings is slim. Texas is paying him handsomely, but perhaps a future as a standout reliever might be more feasible. My heart may yearn for seeing him dominate again, but my head tells me to stay cautious.
Ronald Acuña Jr.: The High-Risk Return
Ronald Acuña Jr. has been a fantasy goldmine since his debut, but his recent injury history is a red flag. After his second ACL tear, it’s clear that Acuña won’t be ready for the start of the 2025 season. He’s also indicated that he plans to "take it easy" on the bases when he returns. While his bat remains lethal, the cautionary note in his comments cannot be ignored. In fantasy sports, when a player downplays their return or sets lower expectations, it’s a sign to be cautious. Acuña’s ADP just outside the top 25 is concerning. Even if he does return to form, the risks of a prolonged absence and reduced base running are significant. For now, I’ll steer clear of Acuña in drafts, but I’ll keep a close eye on his progress.
Mike Trout: The Iconic Star in Transition
Mike Trout, the Angels’ superstar, is moving from center field to right field, a decision aimed at preserving his longevity. However, this shift may not be enough to mitigate the wear and tear on his body. Trout hasn’t played a full six-month season since 2016, and over the past four years, he’s averaged just 67 games. His power did return in a limited 29-game stint last year, but it came with a tepid .220 batting average. While Trout’s ADP is still inside the top 100, I see a similar player profile in Byron Buxton, who is far more affordable. Buxton, despite his injury risks, offers much of the same upside. Trout’s continuous injuries and limited playing time make him a risky pick, especially when there are more cost-effective options available.
Willy Adames: Moving to a Challenging Park
Willy Adames, the Giants’ shortstop, is another player I’ll be fading this year. Coming off a career year with the Tampa Bay Rays, Adames now finds himself in a less forgiving environment in San Francisco. The Giants’ home park is notoriously tough for power hitters, and I expect his home runs to drop significantly. Additionally, the team’s philosophy of not running as frequently means his stolen bases from last year are likely to be an anomaly. Adames was also unusually fortunate with his RBI opportunities, which is unlikely to continue. Given his ADP inside the top 80, I believe he’s overvalued and will likely see a dip in performance as he adjusts to his new team and park.
Xander Bogaerts: The Declining Hero
Xander Bogaerts, the Padres’ second baseman and shortstop, is another player whose recent performance raises concerns. The Red Sox might have dodged a bullet by letting Bogaerts go after the 2022 season, given the massive 11-year, $280 million deal he signed with San Diego. Bogaerts’ stats have fallen off in every slash column last year, and his OPS+ was below the league average. Player decline is a natural part of the game, and Bogaerts, entering his age-32 season, seems to be on that downward trajectory. While he’s still a solid player, the high price tag and recent decline make him a risky pick for fantasy managers, especially with his current ADP.
Speed Round: Quick Takes on More Fades
- Emmanuel Clase, RP, Guardians: I avoid being the first to draft a closer, and Clase is no exception. Despite his high velocity, Clase lacks the strikeout dominance of other top closers. His reliance on velocity without overpowering pitches makes him a less attractive option.
- Randy Arozarena, OF, Mariners: Arozarena’s slugging has been in a free fall for the past few seasons, and the spacious Seattle ballpark may exacerbate this trend. His base stealing has never been a consistent strength, and I foresee his career arc continuing to decline. At 30 years old, the risks outweigh the potential rewards.
- Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies: Nola has always been a pleasure to watch with his exceptional control, but he’s developed a home-run problem, allowing 62 over the past two seasons. His strikeout rate has also been on the decline for the past four years. While he remains a solid pitcher, he’s overpriced in early drafts and may not provide the value needed to justify his ADP.
- Ketel Marte, 2B, Diamondbacks: Marte had an outstanding 2024, but his career norm suggests this performance may not be sustainable. He’s a light base stealer and his .240/.321/.407 season in 2022 is a more realistic expectation. Given his ADP and the recent history, I’ll be cautious about drafting him, even though he’s capable of being a good player.
In the end, fantasy baseball is a game of strategy, risk assessment, and a bit of luck. I hope my insights help you navigate the tricky waters of the 2025 draft season, and remember, my fades are just one set of opinions in a game that thrives on diverse perspectives.
