Introduction to Fantasy Baseball Draft Season
Fantasy baseball draft season is officially in full swing, and with it comes the quest to find the best value picks. Last week, I delved into post-hype hitters, and this time, I’m focusing on starting pitchers who might offer significant value based on their current draft positions. A post-hype pitcher is someone who was once a highly touted prospect or had a lot of buzz but failed to live up to the expectations. These players have either spent more time in the minors than anticipated or struggled in the majors when given a chance. Since they’re no longer in the spotlight, they are often available outside the top 200 picks, making them intriguing targets in deeper drafts. Here are six such pitchers I believe could outperform their draft slots in 2025.
Shane Baz – SP, Tampa Bay Rays (ADP: 174)
Shane Baz might technically be just inside the top 200 picks, but his ADP fall from his February ranking is notable enough to warrant discussion. Baz was one of the Rays’ top prospects before suffering an injury, and his return to the mound in 2024 saw him post a respectable 3.06 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 79.1 innings. The most significant drop-off was his once-nasty slider, which saw its swinging strike rate plummet from 24.3% to 11%. This decrease in effectiveness could be attributed to a loss in spin or a grip issue, but it’s important to note that the pitch still didn’t yield much hard contact, which is a positive sign.
However, Baz’s curveball showed significant improvement in 2024. It boasted a 16.6% swinging strike rate and an 85th-percentile ideal contact rate (ICR), making it a pitch that can be thrown for strikes and get swings-and-misses against both right-handed and left-handed hitters. If Baz can reclaim the effectiveness of his slider, he has the potential to become a top-30 starter. Even in his current state, his ADP of 174 makes him a valuable pick, and I’m confident in his ability to outperform his draft position.
Gavin Williams – SP, Cleveland Guardians (ADP: 231)
Gavin Williams had a rough 2024, regressing from his solid 82-inning debut in 2023. Despite this, there’s a lot to like about Williams, who was the 42nd overall prospect heading into the 2023 season. His minor league numbers are impressive, with a 2.34 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 254 strikeouts over 192.1 innings. In the majors, Williams’ elite extension on his fastball and his ability to command it effectively have been his strengths. However, his four-seamer was more vulnerable to right-handed hitters, who hit it much harder than lefties.
One exciting development is the introduction of a cutter in 2024. Initially, there was confusion about whether the pitch was a true cutter or a less effective slider, but Williams began to use it consistently from August, throwing it nearly 17% of the time. The cutter has elite extension with little horizontal break and five inches of drop, making it effective against both lefties and righties. If Williams can refine his command and find a better weak contact pitch for righties, he has the foundation to stifle hitters of all handedness. Moreover, the narrative of him being injury-prone seems overblown, as he has no history of significant elbow surgeries and threw 115 innings in his first pro season and 142 in his second. Drafting him at ADP 231 is a low-risk, high-reward play.
Brayan Bello – SP, Boston Red Sox (ADP: 316)
Brayan Bello is poised for a breakout season in 2025. Although I said the same last year, this year feels different. Bello tweaked his slider into a sweeper at the end of 2023 and spent the offseason refining it. The results were promising in 2024, with the slider’s swinging strike rate jumping from 10% to 16% and the strike rate improving from 54% to 62%. The pitch also served as a strong two-strike offering with a 24% PutAway rate, indicating its effectiveness in crucial situations. However, his change-up, which had always been his best pitch, suffered in 2024 with a lower zone and strike rate and was hit harder, particularly by right-handed hitters.
Despite these setbacks, Bello’s change-up remains an elite swing-and-miss pitch to lefties, with an 18.5% swinging strike rate. The second year of incorporating a new pitch can often be challenging, and we might see a more refined and balanced arsenal in 2025. With a fastball for strikes and a solid secondary pitch for whiffs against both righties and lefties, Bello has all the tools to become a dominant starter. If he can regain the command of his change-up, he could easily break into the top 30 starting pitchers. His current ADP of 316 makes him a steal.
Bobby Miller – SP, Los Angeles Dodgers (ADP: 346)
Bobby Miller’s post-hype status is clear, given his ADP of 346. Drafted 29th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft and ranked as the 85th prospect in 2023, Miller had a promising rookie season with a 3.76 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 124.1 innings. However, injuries in 2024 derailed his progress, leading to a disastrous campaign. The root of his struggles can be traced to the poor performance of his four-seam fastball, which saw a significant drop in induced vertical break (iVB) and was often left in the heart of the plate.
The mechanical issues that contributed to his poor command could be addressed with a full offseason of rest and recovery. Miller’s shoulder and knee injuries might have exacerbated these problems. If he returns to the 2023 version of himself, a rotation spot in the loaded Dodgers staff could open up, especially given the injury-prone nature of several teammates. Miller’s slider, once a 94th-percentile pitch, also saw a decline, but with the right adjustments, there’s a chance he can reclaim his earlier form. His current ADP makes him a worthwhile gamble in deeper leagues.
Reid Detmers – SP, Los Angeles Angels (ADP: 357)
Reid Detmers might not have had a standout 2024, but his underlying metrics suggest a pitcher with significant potential. Despite a down year, his swinging strike rate was 85th percentile, his Str-ICR (a measure of strikes thrown minus ideal contact rate allowed) was 74th percentile, and his PLV (a pitch grading metric) was 67th percentile. These numbers indicate that Detmers has the foundation to be a solid starter, even when he’s not at his best.
One of the most intriguing changes in 2024 was the improvement in his fastball. He added extension and significant iVB, which helped reduce the ICR from over 47% to 40% and increased his swinging strike rate. His slider also saw a boost in PLV grade by reducing velocity and adding more horizontal break. However, both his slider and curveball are prone to being left up in the zone, leading to hard contact. If Detmers can refine his pitch execution and consistency, he has the potential to be a reliable starter. The Angels seem committed to giving him another chance, and drafting him late in the draft is a low-risk way to watch for any positive developments.
Luis L. Ortiz – SP, Cleveland Guardians (ADP: 363)
Luis L. Ortiz was once ranked as the 77th prospect in baseball by Fangraphs, and for good reason. His arsenal includes an upper-90s fastball and a nasty upper-80s sweeper that generated impressive whiff and chase rates in 2022. However, his struggles with command and pitch selection, particularly against lefties, led to a high walk rate and hard contact. Despite these issues, his 2024 performance (3.32 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 135.2 innings for the Pirates) caught the Guardians’ attention, leading to a trade this offseason.
Ortiz’s introduction of a cutter in 2024 helped mitigate his splits issues and reduced the damage he allowed to lefties. His four-seam fastball, while not a standout, was effective against lefties and could benefit from more consistent use inside. His slider, while not generating the swinging strikes it should, remains a potent weapon, especially in two-strike counts. The Guardians, known for their pitching development, could help Ortiz refine his slider and cutter, making him a compelling late-round pick. If he can find a better weak contact pitch for lefties, Ortiz could be in for a big year.
Hayden Wesneski – SP, Houston Astros (ADP: 401)
Among the deepest value picks, Hayden Wesneski stands out at ADP 401. While he was never a top-100 prospect, Wesneski was highly regarded in the Yankees’ system, thanks to his combination of a 60-grade slider and four-seam fastball. After a brief stint in the bullpen, he’s now with the Astros, who see him as a potential starter. Wesneski’s slider continues to be his best pitch, with an 18.2% swinging strike rate and 39.1% called strike or whiff (CSW) last year.
The challenge lies in finding consistent secondary pitches. His four-seam fastball, while solid against lefties, struggled against righties, leading to a higher ICR. His sinker, used more frequently against righties, also didn’t generate many swinging strikes but did a good job of limiting hard contact. Small sample sizes from 2022 show that his cutter and changeup were effective against lefties, with both pitches posting solid swinging strike rates and ICR. If the Astros can help Wesneski recapture some of this pitch effectiveness, he could emerge as a reliable starter with a balanced arsenal. Drafting him late is a high-reward, low-risk move.
Conclusion
In summary, post-hype starting pitchers can offer significant value in fantasy baseball drafts. Shane Baz, Gavin Williams, Brayan Bello, Bobby Miller, Reid Detmers, and Luis L. Ortiz all have the potential to outperform their current ADP slots. Each player has shown flashes of greatness and has made positive adjustments, which could lead to a breakthrough season in 2025. Drafting them later in the draft allows you to take calculated risks on talented arms without significantly impacting your overall team composition. Keep an eye on these players and consider them as part of your draft strategy to find hidden gems and maximize your roster’s potential.
