The Shuffle Up Series: Starting Pitchers
The Shuffle Up series continues with a deep dive into one of the most crucial and unpredictable positions in fantasy baseball: starting pitchers. If I could ask a genie for just one definitive answer, it would be the identity of the SP1 for the upcoming season. Nailing this spot can significantly boost your chances of winning. However, the allure of starting pitchers often comes with a hefty price tag and a high risk of disappointment. These athletes are subjected to intense physical demands, which can lead to injuries and performance inconsistencies. Teams have implemented various strategies to protect their pitchers, from quicker hooks to lower inning targets, but these can sometimes be counterproductive. The goal is to find a balance between solid, reliable starters and those with upside, all while keeping an eye on the emerging value of middle-relief heroes.
Starting Pitcher Overview
Professional baseball pitching is a taxing endeavor, particularly on the upper body. Shoulders, forearms, and elbows often struggle to withstand the repeated strain of throwing at high velocities, a trend that has become increasingly prevalent. As a result, MLB teams take proactive measures to manage their pitchers, often pulling them from games early or sending them to the injured list at the slightest sign of trouble. Whether these strategies are beneficial or detrimental is a topic of ongoing debate. Some argue that teams are overprotective, potentially setting their pitchers up for failure. However, any fantasy strategy can work if you pick the right players. My approach is to secure three reliable arms early and then look for plausible upside later in the draft. I also prioritize pitchers who are part of strong teams and play in pitcher-friendly ballparks, as these factors can provide a solid foundation for success. Drafting pitchers with a mix of potential and stability is key to building a competitive roster.
Tier 1: The Big Tickets
In Tier 1, we find the elite starting pitchers, each with their unique risks and rewards. Paul Skenes, for instance, is almost unhittable, thanks to his exceptional fastball velocity. However, this speed comes with a health risk, as he hasn’t consistently pitched deep into games. His team’s cautious approach and last year’s dominant performance (1.96 ERA) make him an attractive but risky early-round pick. Zack Wheeler, despite a slight dip in fastball velocity, had a career-best season at age 34. His durability and efficiency are impressive, although his BABIP (.246) suggests he might not sustain such a low number. Logan Gilbert, a Mariners pitcher, has shown consistent improvement in his strikeout rate and durability. Given Seattle’s pitcher-friendly park, Gilbert looks like a reliable mid-to-late Round 3 target. Chris Sale, now with the Braves, is another intriguing option. If he stays healthy, his experience and skill can be invaluable, but his recent history of injuries and an aging body (age 36) are cause for concern. Gerrit Cole and Dylan Cease bring elite strikeout potential, but their health and consistency are always in question. Finally, Garrett Crochet, with his reimagined role, could be a sleeper pick if he translates his relief success to starting.
Tier 2: Legitimate Building Blocks
Tier 2 includes pitchers with a strong foundation and room for growth. Blake Snell, Michael King, and Framber Valdez are durable and have shown steady improvement in various metrics. Snell’s key to success lies in maintaining his strikeout rate and avoiding the injury pitfalls that have plagued him in the past. King, after an initial adjustment period in San Diego, dominated with a 2.42 ERA and .219 batting average against. His reliability in a pitcher-friendly ballpark makes him a valuable mid-tier pick. Logan Webb, a Giants pitcher, has a profile that appeals to many fantasy managers—a ground-ball specialist with solid control. Despite some unlucky hit sequencing last year, Webb’s durability and defensive support make him a strong target. Bailey Ober, a Twins pitcher, is another reliable option. His control and consistent strikeout rate, coupled with Minnesota’s slightly favorable home park, make him a solid value pick.
Tier 3: Talk Them Up, Talk Them Down
In Tier 3, we encounter pitchers with significant upside but also notable risks. Jacob deGrom, a once-in-a-generation talent, has struggled with health issues, including two Tommy John surgeries. His age (37) and the hostile Coors Field in the NL West make him a tricky pick. His current ADP (SP12) is high, and I would wait for a more reasonable price before considering him. Aaron Nola, while durable and with excellent control, has consistently struggled with home runs, leading to a mediocre ERA over the past four years. His age (32) and the homer-friendly Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia suggest more downside than upside. Lance McCullers Jr. and Walker Buehler are similar stories—both have shown flashes of brilliance but are injury risks. Marcus Stroman, with his ground-ball tendencies, might have a decent floor, but his ceiling is limited.
Tier 4: Promising Prospects
This tier is where you can find young pitchers showing promise and potential for a breakout season. Shane Baz and Brandon Pfaadt are two names to watch. Baz, a Rays pitcher, has the potential to be a top starter but has yet to fully realize it. Pfaadt, despite a mid-7 ERA in the first half of 2024, showed significant improvement with a 3.78 ERA that was largely luck-driven. He’s still just 26, and his consistent walk and strikeout rates make him a sleeper pick. Shohei Ohtani, a dual-threat player, can provide unique value as both a hitter and pitcher. However, his pitching workload and the competitive AL West make him a risky choice. Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, while seasoned veterans, are entering their late 30s and early 40s, respectively, making their long-term health questionable. MacKenzie Gore, a Padres pitcher, has shown steady development and could be a solid mid-tier pick if he continues his positive trajectory.
Tier 5: Some Plausible Upside
Tier 5 offers a mix of experienced pitchers and younger talent with the potential for a career year. Shane Baz, Brandon Pfaadt, and Ronel Blanco are all names that could surprise in 2025. Pfaadt, in particular, is intriguing due to his unlucky first half and his continued improvement in strikeout and walk rates. José Berríos, while a control master, is a regression candidate based on his batted-ball data. However, his reliable innings make him a useful option, especially at his current low ADP. Shane McClanahan and Zach Eflin are other candidates for a breakout season. McClanahan, despite his age (26), showed flashes of brilliance with the Rays, and Eflin, a veteran of the Phillies, could benefit from a more stable lineup and park. Investing in these players early could pay off if they hit their strides.
Tier 6: Bargain Bin
The bargain bin is where you find undervalued talent that could surprise. Charlie Morton, Spencer Arrighetti, and Drew Rasmussen are solid late-round picks. Morton, a veteran, can still provide reliable innings and decent ratios. Arrighetti, a Dodgers prospect, has shown promise in the minors and could benefit from the team’s strong defensive support. Rasmussen, a Mariners pitcher, has a high strikeout ceiling and a favorable home park. Young pitchers like Jackson Jobe and Andrew Painter offer high upside but come with higher risk due to their lack of experience. Veterans like Clayton Kershaw and Gio González are long shots but could provide value if they manage to stay healthy. Building a strong foundation with reliable pitchers and supplementing it with a few high-risk, high-reward picks from this tier can give your roster the depth it needs to compete in the long run.
