Introduction: The Key to Late-Round Pitching Success
Finding effective pitchers in the late rounds of your fantasy baseball draft is crucial for a successful season. Pitchers are inherently more volatile than hitters, meaning their performance can fluctuate wildly from one game to the next. Managers who overlook this fact and fail to identify undervalued pitching talent are essentially leaving money on the table for their competitors. While there are certainly pitchers who are good value picks based on their current Average Draft Position (ADP), such as Cristopher Sánchez and Zack Eflin, these aren’t the sleepers we’re looking for. Instead, the 10 hurlers listed below have the potential to exceed expectations significantly and are all available after pick 200 in Yahoo drafts. This article will delve into the reasons why each of these pitchers could be a game-changer in your fantasy lineup.
Bowden Francis: A Late-Season Star on the Rise
Bowden Francis, the young left-hander of the Toronto Blue Jays, is a prime candidate to be a late-round gem in 2025. It’s almost hard to believe that one of the best starters of the 2024 stretch run is available so late in drafts. After Francis transitioned to a full-time starter on August 7, 2024, he produced an impressive 1.53 ERA and a stingy 0.53 WHIP. In nine starts, he also managed to throw at least seven innings five times, showcasing his durability and effectiveness. Even if Francis regresses somewhat, his current ADP (212.7) ensures that he remains a significant value pick. The Blue Jays have a strong lineup and a solid defense, which should help Francis maintain his success and make him a reliable addition to your fantasy rotation.
Clarke Schmidt: Back in the Spotlight
Clarke Schmidt, a right-hander for the New York Yankees, has been a bit overlooked in the early draft stages, but his ADP of 220.9 makes him a steal. Schmidt’s value was suppressed by a limited number of starts (16) in 2024 and his uncertain rotation spot. However, with Luis Gil sidelined due to an injury and Marcus Stroman likely to be moved to a relief role, Schmidt has a clear path to at least 30 starts this season. His improvements in 2024, including a notable 26.3% strikeout rate, and his impressive 105 Stuff+ score, which ranked 28th among pitchers with at least 80 innings, highlight his potential. Schmidt’s repertoire and recent performance suggest he could return to the form that made him a top prospect, making him a high-reward option in the later rounds.
Jason Adam: The UNDER-RATEDsetup Man
Jason Adam, currently pitching for the San Diego Padres, is another late-round pick with significant upside. The Padres are one of the most active front offices in baseball, and the trade rumors surrounding current closer Robert Suárez are worth considering. Suárez, a 34-year-old with a high value, could be traded away, leaving a strong relief corps and a need for bullpen depth. Adam, who posted a remarkable 1.95 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 2024, is among the best relievers in the game. Even if he remains in a setup role, Adam’s production should justify his ADP (229.9). However, should the Padres move him to the closer position, he could easily become a top-10 closer, significantly boosting his fantasy value.
Jesús Luzardo: High Ceiling, High Risk
Jesús Luzardo, the left-hander for the Philadelphia Phillies, epitomizes the boom-or-bust nature of late-round pitching picks. Despite his ADP of 242.4, Luzardo has a high ceiling, as evidenced by his 2023 performance, where he recorded a 3.58 ERA and 208 strikeouts. The 2024 season was tough for him due to injuries, but he has declared himself fully healthy. The Phillies’ home park, Citizens Bank Park, is more challenging than his previous venue, but the better supporting cast in Philadelphia should offset this disadvantage. Luzardo’s combination of health and potential makes him a tantalizing late-round option, one that could deliver exceptional returns if he can stay on the mound.
Nestor Cortes: A Proven Performer in a New Home
Nestor Cortes, now with the Milwaukee Brewers, has demonstrated his effectiveness as a starter over the past few years. After a brief setback in 2023 due to injuries, Cortes bounced back strong in 2024, posting a 3.77 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and 162 strikeouts. The Brewers are known for their ability to maximize the performance of their pitchers, making Cortes a solid choice at his current ADP (253.4). While he might not repeat his 2024 numbers exactly, the potential for Cortes to improve or at least maintain his current level of performance is high. His control and ability to induce ground balls make him a valuable asset, especially in the later rounds of your draft.
Cody Bradford: The Control Artist with a Hidden Gem
Cody Bradford, the southpaw for the Texas Rangers, is another intriguing late-round pick with an ADP of 260.1. Despite being limited to 14 outings in 2024, Bradford showed signs of a breakout season with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. While he doesn’t have overpowering stuff, Bradford excels in control, boasting a minuscule 4.2% walk rate. His game plan, which involves inducing plenty of fly balls, could make him more prone to home runs, but we have seen pitchers thrive with this approach. The Rangers’ need for starting pitching depth means Bradford has a good chance to secure a rotation spot, making him a risk worth taking in the later rounds.
DJ Herz: The Power Arm with Untapped Potential
DJ Herz, a rookie for the Washington Nationals, has the potential to be a significant late-round find with his ADP of 259.5. Herz’s upside is undeniable—he struck out 106 batters in just 88.2 innings last season, hinting at a remarkable strikeout total across a full season. According to Statcast, Herz was unlucky in 2024, with a projected xBA of .208 and an xERA of 3.26, both far lower than his actual marks. Herz will need to compete for a rotation spot in spring training, but he’s up against two unremarkable starters, Trevor Williams and Michael Soroka, who each threw fewer than 100 innings last year. If he earns the spot, Herz could be a powerful addition to your pitching staff.
David Festa: The Strikeout Machine with a Shot
David Festa, a rising star for the Minnesota Twins, is another late-round option with a high ceiling. Like Herz, Festa has an ADP of 256.4 and will need to compete for a rotation spot in spring training. However, the competition is not formidable, primarily consisting of Chris Paddack, who struggled in 2024 with a 4.99 ERA and 88.1 innings pitched. After some initial hiccups in his first three major league starts, Festa posted solid ratios (3.96 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) and an eye-popping 11.2 K/9 rate over his final 11 outings. This performance aligns with his minor league career, where he consistently struck out batters at the same rate. Festa’s swing-and-miss skills make him an exciting late-round pick, with the potential to provide significant value if he secures a starting role.
Ben Brown: The Two-Pitch Wonder
Ben Brown, a right-hander for the Chicago Cubs, is the third consecutive pitcher in this article who needs to outcompete mediocre veterans to earn a rotation spot. With an ADP of 267.5, Brown’s prospects are intriguing. He faces competition from Javier Assad and Colin Rea, neither of whom has been particularly effective in recent seasons. Brown’s standout feature is his strikeout rate, which sits at an impressive 28.8%. Despite using just two pitches, he has managed to be effective, particularly in his ability to induce swings and misses. Brown’s combination of a high ceiling and a low ADP makes him a prime candidate for a late-round selection, with the potential to be a significant contributor to your fantasy team.
Conclusion: Maximizing Your Late-Round Picks
In fantasy baseball, late-round picks can often make or break your season. The pitchers discussed here—Bowden Francis, Clarke Schmidt, Jason Adam, Jesús Luzardo, Nestor Cortes, Cody Bradford, DJ Herz, David Festa, and Ben Brown—all have the potential to exceed their current ADP and provide substantial value. Whether it’s through their recent performance, their high strikeout rates, or the supportive environments they find themselves in, these hurlers are worth considering as you build your roster. By taking calculated risks on these late-round sleepers, you can gain a competitive edge and set your team up for success in the 2025 MLB season. Don’t overlook these players; they could be the difference between a good season and a great one.
