Introduction: A New Angle on Hitting Talent
In the dynamic world of fantasy baseball, hitters often take center stage, especially when considering their potential for breakout seasons or value undervalued by the market. While we frequently use metrics like barrel rates and max exit velocities to assess a player’s power, today we’re focusing on a lesser-known but highly revealing Statcast metric: EV50. This stat averages the hardest 50% of a batter’s batted balls, providing a clearer picture of a hitter’s consistent power rather than just their peak performance. By examining this metric, we can identify players who are hitting the ball hard regularly and might be poised for a significant leap in production. Let’s dive into the 2024 EV50 leaderboard to uncover some potential gems for your 2025 fantasy baseball drafts.
Top 15 EV50 Leaders: A Consistent Display of Power
The top 15 in the EV50 leaderboard are a who’s who of the game’s premier sluggers. Names like Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, and Oneil Cruz are no surprise, given their reputations for driving the ball out of the park with authority. However, some players on this list stand out as potential values based on their current draft positions. For instance, Jerar Encarnación, James Wood, Matt Wallner, Jesús Sánchez, and Matt Chapman are all hitting the ball remarkably hard and could offer substantial returns for fantasy managers who are willing to take a chance on them. Each of these players has unique strengths and storylines that make them intriguing options, even if they come with some risks.
Jerar Encarnación: The Mexican League Revival
Jerar Encarnación’s journey from obscurity to potential breakout star is nothing short of compelling. After struggling in his MLB debut with the Marlins in 2022 and a subsequent poor minor league performance in 2023, Encarnación found himself playing in the Mexican Independent League. However, he quickly turned things around, hitting an impressive .366 with 19 home runs in just 26 games. This performance caught the eye of the Giants, who signed him to a minor league contract. Encarnación’s EV50 of 105.6 mph places him among the elite sluggers, and his percentage of batted balls over 95 mph is second only to Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. Despite his small sample size, the Giants have given him a chance to start as the designated hitter in San Francisco. With a moderate strikeout rate and strong performance in spring training, Encarnación is a high-risk, high-reward player worth scooping up at the end of drafts. If he can maintain his contact consistency, he could surprise many fantasy managers with his power.
James Wood: A Solid Rookie with Upside
James Wood’s MLB debut was solid, and his EV50 of 104.7 mph suggests he has the capability to hit the ball with elite power consistently. Drafted inside the first 55 picks, Wood is far from a sleeper but still warrants attention due to his quality of contact. A concern is his 29% strikeout rate, which was even higher in Double-A in 2023. However, his ability to hit for power and his potential for 20+ stolen bases make him a valuable pick. The Nationals are expected to play him regularly, and his early spring training performance (8-for-18 with one home run and 10 RBI) is a promising sign. While Wood’s strikeout rate will need to be monitored, his combination of power and speed makes him a compelling addition to any fantasy roster.
Matt Wallner: Consistent Power and Leading Off
Matt Wallner’s EV50 of 104.6 mph and his exit velocities on fly balls and line drives demonstrate his elite power potential. Drafted at pick 275, Wallner is a relative bargain given his impressive contact metrics. The Twins have been playing him in the lead-off role this spring, which could significantly boost his plate appearances and overall value. Wallner’s second-half surge in 2024, where he hit .272/.376/.538 with 10 home runs in 55 games, shows that he can make meaningful contact. While his performance against left-handed pitching remains a concern, his overall power and potential for a higher batting average, even if it’s around .240, make him a worthwhile late-round gamble.
Jesús Sánchez: Power with Speed and Platoon Concerns
Jesús Sánchez is a hitter who consistently makes authoritative contact, as evidenced by his 12.2% barrel rate over the past two seasons. Despite being drafted at pick 254, his EV50 of 105.7 mph and exit velocities on fly balls and line drives place him among the elite power hitters. However, Sánchez’s high groundball rate and platoon splits are areas of concern. He struggled against lefties last year, hitting just .162/.228/.257. The Marlins have started to play him more against left-handed pitching, but his position in the batting order will be crucial. If Sánchez can prove his worth early in the season, he might see more regular playing time. His 15+ stolen base upside adds to his appeal, making him a player worth considering in drafts, though he may need a change of organization to fully realize his power potential.
Matt Chapman: A Solid Veteran on the Rise
Matt Chapman, a veteran third baseman for the Giants, is a consistent power producer being drafted too late at pick 132. After struggling in 2021 and 2022, Chapman adjusted his approach last year, reducing his pull rate to 39% and becoming more aggressive at the plate. This led to a 6% increase in zone contact and a 7% increase in overall contact rate, raising his batting average to near .250. Even in the pitcher-friendly confines of San Francisco, Chapman managed to hit 27 home runs. His career-high 15 steals, though likely to revert closer to 10, add to his value. Chapman’s elite barrel rates and raw power make him a reliable option for fantasy managers, especially considering his improving batting average and occasional stolen base. He’s a solid value in the current draft market.
Emerging and Established Veterans: A Closer Look
While some players like Michael Harris II and Jo Adell are intriguing due to their speed and defense, others like Tyler Soderstrom, Adolis García, and Ryan McMahon stand out as undervalued due to their consistent power. Harris, currently drafted at pick 40, is expected to bounce back after injuries impacted his 2024 season. Adell, drafted at pick 295, has impressive raw power but struggles with a high groundball rate and poor defensive skills in center field. Soderstrom, drafted at pick 277, has a better contact profile than Adell but still hits the ball on the ground too often.
Adolis García, drafted at pick 147, is a veteran who remains a powerhouse despite a down year in 2024. His 25 home runs and 11 stolen bases last year, coupled with a healthier knee and a new, more efficient swing, position him for a significant rebound. Ryan McMahon, drafted at pick 306, has been a model of consistency over the past few seasons, hitting between .240 and .254 with 20-23 home runs and 4-7 steals. His odd second half in 2024, where he hit .188 with a 29.5% strikeout rate, has his draft value plummeting. However, McMahon’s track record and the Rockies’ need for his consistent production make him a potential steal in late rounds.
By focusing on EV50, we can identify players who consistently hit the ball hard and are poised for breakout seasons or are being undervalued by the market. Whether it’s a rookie with raw power or a veteran adjusting his approach, these players offer promising potential for your 2025 fantasy baseball roster.
