Hitters Being Drafted Too Low
Corbin Carroll, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks (No. 12 overall ADP vs. my No. 6)
Fantasy baseball analyst Dalton Del Don is a strong advocate for Corbin Carroll, believing he deserves a higher draft position than his current 12th overall ADP. Carroll’s season initially had a rocky start, but his performance in the latter half of the year erased many of the concerns. Over his final 45 games, Carroll posted an impressive .935 OPS, hit 13 home runs, and stole 14 bases. His 600-AB pace during this stretch projects a .269 average, 154 hits, 46 home runs, 116 runs, and 49 stolen bases, a stat line that underscores his potential. Despite some early shoulder issues, Carroll finished the season healthy and showed significant power. At 25 years old, he has the tools to improve, particularly with a full-time move to right field, where he performed well last year. Chase Field, the Diamondbacks’ home park, is tied for the sixth-best hitter’s park over the last three seasons, further boosting his prospects. Given these factors, Carroll should be a borderline top-five pick, and his current ADP makes him a steal.
Wyatt Langford, OF, Texas Rangers (No. 60 overall ADP vs. my No. 37)
Wyatt Langford, despite failing to meet high expectations in his rookie year, still managed a solid 110 wRC+. His September performance was particularly noteworthy, with a .300/.386/.610 batting line and a remarkable 180 wRC+. Langford’s 600-AB pace during this period projects 48 home runs, 42 stolen bases, 150 runs scored, and 120 RBIs. While cautious optimism is often advised when looking at September stats, Langford’s mechanical adjustments during this month, particularly his lower average launch angle, suggest he’s on the right path. At just 23 years old, he has a bright future, especially with the Rangers’ lineup providing favorable batting conditions and Globe Life Field increasing home runs for right-handed batters by 16% over the past three years. Langford’s mild oblique injury last week should not impact his Opening Day status, making him a strong candidate for a higher draft pick. Fantasy managers should consider him a potential first-round pick in 2026.
Oneil Cruz, SS/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates (No. 61 overall ADP vs. my No. 38)
Oneil Cruz’s breakthrough season in 2024, where he stayed healthy and produced a 20/20 campaign, has not yet translated into his ADP. While some might desire a higher home run or steal count, Cruz showed significant improvement in his plate discipline, particularly against left-handers. His K% dropped from 53.2% to 30.5% and his wRC+ against southpaws rose from 46 to 84. Cruz’s elite bat speed, average exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage place him in the 97th percentile or better. After the All-Star break, he hit .277 and posted a 125 wRC+, demonstrating his growing potential. At 26 years old, Cruz is poised for a move to the outfield in 2025, which could further enhance his performance. Drafting him 20+ picks higher than his current ADP would be a smart move for fantasy teams.
Jasson Domínguez, OF, New York Yankees (No. 159 ADP vs. my No. 123)
Jasson Domínguez, a 21-year-old phenom, is flying under the radar with a ADP of 159. Yet, his performance in the minors and his initial showing in the majors suggest he has significant upside. Domínguez has already recorded six home runs and six stolen bases in just 87 career at-bats in the majors, a hint of his explosive potential. Yankee Stadium, known for its home run-friendly environment, has boosted homers by 19% over the last three seasons, providing a perfect stage for Domínguez to shine. OOPSY projects him to hit 21 home runs and steal 28 bases while missing 25+ games, but even with some downtime, his production is expected to be stellar. Despite the injury risk, his potential as a leadoff hitter and his youth make him a valuable fantasy asset, and he should be drafted at least three rounds higher.
Hitters Being Drafted Too High
Ketel Marte, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks (No. 26 overall ADP vs. my No. 48)
Ketel Marte’s stellar 2024 season, where he posted a 151 wRC+ and ranked among the top 10 in baseball, has inflated his ADP to 26th overall. However, Del Don advises caution, citing Marte’s career average of 118 wRC+ and his frequent injury issues. Over the last four seasons, Marte has missed an average of 34 games, which can significantly impact his fantasy value. His stolen base numbers have also been lackluster, with only 10 stolen bases since 2019. Given his age (31) and the high expectations set by his 2024 performance, Marte is due for regression in 2025. OOPSY projects him to hit 25 home runs over 147 games, a stretch that seems optimistic given his injury history. Drafting Marte in the third round or earlier in Yahoo drafts is risky, and managers should consider fading his ADP.
Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros (No. 36 overall ADP vs. my No. 64)
Jose Altuve, a consistent and reliable fantasy player, is currently being drafted as a borderline third-round pick, which Del Don believes is too high. Altuve’s 2024 season, where he reached his highest plate appearances (682) since 2016, resulted in relatively modest counting stats. His decline at the plate, especially as he enters his age-35 season, is a cause for concern. The move to left field is another variable that could affect his performance, and THE BAT X projects a .258 batting average with just 17 home runs, 67 runs, and 15 stolen bases over 150+ games. Given these projections, Altuve’s ADP should be lower, and drafting him outside the third round would be more prudent.
Pitching Landscape
While the hitting analysis is compelling, Del Don also offers insights into the pitching landscape. The overall depth and variability in pitching make it crucial for fantasy managers to carefully assess pitchers’ ADPs and their potential for consistent performance. Key metrics such as ERA, WHIP, and K/9 are essential, but factors like park factors, health, and recent performance trends can significantly influence a pitcher’s value. Del Don’s comprehensive analysis emphasizes the importance of balancing these elements to make informed draft decisions. Managers should be particularly cautious with veteran pitchers and those with injury histories, as even slight declines can have a substantial impact on fantasy outcomes. blijven
