The Unconventional Pick: A Leap of Faith
On Tuesday night, the LABR mixed league draft handed me the No. 1 pick, and I had no hesitation. With the entire baseball universe at my fingertips, including the reigning MVPs Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge, I opted for an unconventional direction. I selected Bobby Witt Jr. This decision wasn’t meant to be a hot take or a look-at-me pick. Rather, it was a strategic move, inspired by Wayne Gretzky’s advice to skate to where the puck is headed, not where it has been.
The Case Against Shohei Ohtani
The pick-Witt decision inevitably leads to a discussion about why I didn’t choose Ohtani. While it’s not my intention to nitpick, it’s crucial to understand the reasoning behind this choice. Ohtani was the most valuable player in fantasy last season, boasting an impressive .310-134-54-130-59 line. However, one key statistic stands out: his 59 stolen bases. This number is incongruent with his career trend, which has seen him average around 15 steals per season since 2018. The spike in steals last year could be attributed to a tangible goal of achieving a 50-50 season. By the final 58 games, Ohtani had stolen an astonishing 35 bases, all on 35 attempts.
Stealing bases, while a plus play, is physically draining and not always practical in the long term. Ohtani’s veteran teammates, like Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, have been more selective with their base-running, recognizing the physical toll it can take. Moreover, the Dodgers, a perennial playoff team, are likely to be cautious with player workloads, further reducing the likelihood of Ohtani maintaining his high steal rate. Additionally, Ohtani’s pitching duties will add another layer of physical strain, potentially affecting his offensive output.
The Downside of a Utility-Only Star
Another consideration is Ohtani’s utility-only status. While an undeniable superstar, he doesn’t carry a specific position, which can be a minor drawback in less position-flexible fantasy leagues. This factor, combined with the potential regression in steals and the physical demands of his dual roles, makes me cautious about selecting Ohtani as the No. 1 pick.
The Promise of Bobby Witt Jr.
Bobby Witt Jr. represents a player with significant room for growth. At 25 years old, he is entering his prime, and his stats from the previous season are already impressive. Last year, Witt led the AL in hits and the majors in batting average. His walk rate improved, and his strikeout rate decreased. His Baseball Savant metrics are a testament to his hard-hitting capabilities and his 100th percentile sprint speed. The combination of his hitting prowess and speed is not only rare but also incredibly valuable in fantasy baseball.
The Royal Treatment
The Kansas City Royals’ ascent as a competitive team adds another layer of appeal to selecting Witt. After ranking 23rd in runs in 2021, they improved to 13th in 2022. The projected lineup includes several plus offensive players, with the top four—Jonathan India, Witt, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Salvador Perez—forming a formidable core. While the Royals might not be on par with the best teams in the league, their upward trajectory and solid offensive lineup provide a strong foundation for Witt’s continued success.
The Youth Advantage
In fantasy sports, health and longevity are crucial factors. Witt’s track record of durability, having missed only 17 games in three years, is a significant advantage. In contrast, Ohtani has faced significant injuries in three of his seven seasons, while Judge has encountered IL issues in four of the past seven seasons. The younger, healthier Witt offers a safer bet for consistent performance over the long term.
Embracing the Future
Ultimately, the decision to select Bobby Witt Jr. as my No. 1 pick in the LABR mixed league draft is a bet on the future. Ohtani, Judge, and Witt are all capable of anchoring a fantasy offense, but Witt’s youth, growth potential, and the Royals’ upward trajectory make him the most compelling choice. It’s a decision influenced by a careful analysis of career arcs, injury risks, and the unique value Witt brings to a fantasy team. For the 2025 season, Bobby Witt Jr. is my guy.
