The Promise of Gavin Williams in 2025
GOODYEAR, Arizona, Feb. 27, 2025 — If you’ve read any of my content this offseason, you know I’m a big believer in Guardians right-hander Gavin Williams emerging as a top value pick in fantasy baseball drafts in 2025. In my earlier article on post-hype sleepers, I highlighted Williams as a breakout candidate due to the cutter he introduced in 2024, which gave him a swing-and-miss pitch effective against both righties and lefties. This pitch earned him a comparison to Garrett Crochet by Nick Pollack of Pitcher List, suggesting a potential four-seam/cutter-heavy approach could propel him to success. However, I also noted some concerns, such as his slider not translating well to the big league and his fastball, which had elite metrics, getting hit harder by right-handed hitters than it should have. It turns out that Williams and the Guardians were well aware of these issues, and they trace back to mechanical problems stemming from an elbow injury early in the spring last year.
Overcoming Mechanical Hurdles
Williams has been diligently addressing these mechanical issues, which have been linked to the bad habits he developed while compensating for his elbow injury. Months of rigorous physical therapy have left his elbow feeling great, allowing him to focus on refining his delivery mechanics. "He’s just working on his delivery to get his fastball profiles back," said Guardians manager Stephen Vogt. "Last year, with the elbow injury, he just wasn’t able to get back to his normal self, so he really dove into some delivery mechanics to get his fastball profile specifically back to where it should be. It was really flat last year, and it’s been showing well so far." The flatness of Williams’ four-seam fastball last year was evident in its induced vertical break (iVB), which was almost an inch less than his previous levels. For context, an iVB of 17 inches is considered elite. Williams has been working on maintaining a taller back leg to avoid spinning out, a change that has already shown promising results.
Revitalizing the Four-Seam Fastball
In his first spring training start, Williams’ four-seam fastball demonstrated significant improvements. The pitch gained an inch more horizontal movement and added nearly two inches of iVB, reaching an elite 17 inches. This, combined with his above-average extension, has brought back the plus fastball that was a hallmark of his minor league days. Williams averaged 97 mph, topping out at 98 mph, and struck out three batters in two scoreless innings. "Gavin looked really sharp," said Vogt after the game. "Velocity, obviously, is there, but the movement looked like what he used to look like. It had some good vertical movement to it." This enhanced movement and mechanical adjustments should allow Williams to attack the top half of the strike zone more effectively, a strategy he believes will benefit his performance. "This year is gonna help me out, being more at the top of the zone, where I want to be and where I should be," said Williams.
Resurrecting the Slider
In addition to his four-seam fastball, Williams has been working to refine his slider, a pitch that struggled last year. The grip and release were off, and the pitch often resembled a cutter. Despite this, the "cutter" was surprisingly effective, posting above-average swinging strike and ideal contact rates. Williams has since made a grip change to regain the feel for his slider. In his first spring training outing, the slider had a drastically different movement profile, with over seven more inches of drop and six more inches of bite. "I wanted something a little bit bigger," Williams said. "Having something a little bit bigger and kind of like the same speed [as the cutter] really is going to help out." This improvement has restored his confidence in the pitch, which he can now use effectively against both righties and lefties.
Mental Fortitude and a New Approach
Williams has also been working on his mental approach during the offseason. Manager Vogt emphasized the importance of Williams attacking the strike zone and going right after hitters. Williams has taken this advice to heart, learning to slow the game down and manage his emotions. "I learned to slow the game down over the offseason. Working on breathing stuff, just being able to slow the game down," said Williams. "Last year, I just got way too ahead of myself, being frustrated with myself and just holding that in. One thing led to another. Now I’m just not really thinking about the negatives and just worrying about more the positives." This positive outlook has bolstered Williams’ confidence, setting the stage for a breakout season.
A Bright Future Awaits
With his four-seam fastball and slider back to form, and a new mental approach to boot, Gavin Williams is poised for a significant breakthrough in 2025. His current value in fantasy drafts, sitting at pick 233 in 12-team NFBC drafts since February 1, makes him an excellent value pick. The Guardians and Williams are both optimistic about his potential, and given his recent performance, it’s clear that this could be the year Williams takes a big step forward. My confidence in him is high, and I believe he will be a valuable asset to any fantasy baseball team this season.
