Padres Sign Nick Pivetta to Long-Term Deal
The San Diego Padres, known for their aggressive moves in both the winter and at the trade deadline, have had a relatively quiet offseason. However, the silence was broken on February 13, 2025, with the announcement of a significant signing. According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, the Padres have agreed to a four-year, $55 million contract with right-handed pitcher Nick Pivetta, pending a physical. The deal includes opt-outs after the second and third seasons, with Pivetta receiving a $3 million signing bonus and a $1 million salary in 2025, followed by $19 million in 2026, $14 million in 2027, and $18 million in 2028. This move marks a substantial investment for the Padres, indicating high hopes for what Pivetta can bring to the team.
Pivetta’s Recent Performance
Pivetta’s journey in Major League Baseball (MLB) has been a mix of promise and inconsistency. After joining the Philadelphia Phillies from the Washington Nationals in a trade for Jonathan Papelbon, Pivetta struggled to find his footing, posting a 5.40 ERA over 94 appearances, 73 of which were starts. His fortunes changed when he was traded to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for Heath Hembree and Brandon Workman. In his first full season as a starter in Boston, he had a respectable 4.53 ERA. This was followed by a 4.56 ERA over a league-leading 33 starts in 2022. In 2023, Pivetta split time between the bullpen and the rotation, maintaining a 4.04 ERA, a 183/50 K/BB ratio, and a 1.12 WHIP over 142 2/3 innings. The 2024 season was his most consistent yet, with a 4.14 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 172/3 K/BB over 145 2/3 innings. His performance warranted a qualifying offer from the Red Sox, and the Padres are now banking on his continued growth.
Pivetta’s Strengths
One of Pivetta’s standout strengths is his ability to rack up strikeouts. His career K/9 of 10 is a testament to his effectiveness in this category. In 2024, his strikeout percentage of 28.9 placed him in the 89th percentile among all qualifying pitchers, and he was even higher, in the 93rd percentile, the previous year. Pivetta’s repertoire includes a fastball, sweeper, and curveball, which he throws predominantly for strikes. His walk percentage of 6.1 in 2024, ranking in the 80th percentile, further underscores his pitch-to-contact approach. Hitters know they will face strikes from Pivetta, which helps him generate a chase rate of 30 percent and an expected batting average against of just .221. His quality stuff and willingness to challenge hitters make him a valuable asset in both the K and WHIP categories.
Pivetta’s Struggles
Despite his strengths, Pivetta has had to battle several significant issues. One of the most glaring is his tendency to allow home runs. In every season he has been a full-time pitcher, he has given up at least 20 home runs, including 28 in his final year with the Red Sox. This isn’t just a matter of bad luck with fly balls; Pivetta’s barrel rate of just over 10 percent in 2024 placed him in the bottom 10th percentile. His ground ball percentage of 38.5, ranking in the bottom sixth percentile, and the average exit velocity of 89.4 mph against hitters indicate that he often faces hard contact. Another concerning aspect is Pivetta’s inconsistency, particularly in avoiding blow-up starts. In 2024, five of his 27 appearances saw him allow at least five runs, and another three saw him give up four runs, none of which exceeded five innings. These clunker outings have been a recurring theme, making it difficult to trust him as a top-tier starter.
Pivetta’s Role in San Diego
With the Padres, Pivetta is likely to join a rotation that currently includes Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Yu Darvish. If these names remain in place, Pivetta would likely slot in as the fourth starter, with Randy Vazquez as the probable fifth. However, the reality of MLB means that this lineup could change. Cease, in particular, has been a trade candidate for most of the offseason. The addition of Pivetta, with his solid track record of strikeouts and reasonable walk rates, might make trading Cease a more feasible option for the Padres. Speculation has suggested that players like Heston Kjerstad could headline a move for Cease, given that the Padres have a question mark in the outfield after the Orioles signed Ramon Laureano. While this is purely speculative, the signing of Pivetta could signal a broader strategy for the Padres to optimize their roster through trades.
Fantasy Considerations for 2025
From a fantasy perspective, Pivetta presents a mix of potential and risk. His consistent ability to collect strikeouts and maintain a low walk rate makes him a solid option in several categories. However, the risk of allowing home runs and experiencing volatile outings is a significant concern. At 32 years old, it’s unlikely that Pivetta will make marked improvements in these areas. While he could contribute some wins behind San Diego’s strong lineup, the prospect of a four-inning, five-run start is just as likely as a six-inning, two-run effort. Therefore, it’s advisable to draft Pivetta as more of a streamer than a reliable everyday starter. If you can secure him as your fourth starting option, outside the top 40 or so hurlers, he could be a valuable addition to your fantasy team. Overall, Pivetta is a player with clear strengths and notable weaknesses, making him a smart choice for a deeper roster but not a top-three starter.
