The Double-Edged Sword of Risk in Baseball
In the world of baseball, where transactions are as common as pitchers warming up in the bullpen, every move comes with a degree of risk. Whether it’s a free-agent signing or a trade, the stakes are high. Free-agent signings can turn into financial missteps if the player underperforms or ages poorly. Trades, on the other hand, introduce different layers of risk: the loss of valuable prospects or the gamble on unproven talent. The challenge for front offices is to navigate these risks while making calculated decisions that justify the gamble in the pursuit of a championship.
The Evolution of Trade Strategies
There was a time, not long ago, when MLB teams were more inclined to make bold trades, moving highly touted prospects for established big-league talent. However, recent years have seen a shift towards a more cautious approach. As Matt Arnold, president of baseball operations for the Brewers, aptly put it, “If you haven’t made a bad trade, you haven’t made enough trades.” This shift is partly due to the increasing value of prospects and the cost-effectiveness of young talent. The fear of trading away a future star and the homogenization of player evaluation methods have made teams more hesitant to part with their prized prospects.
The Heyday of Bold Trades
To understand the current landscape, it’s worth revisiting some landmark trades from a decade ago. In 2015, the Arizona Diamondbacks traded shortstop Dansby Swanson, the No. 1 pick, to the Atlanta Braves for Shelby Miller. Seven months later, the Chicago Cubs traded blue-chip prospect Gleyber Torres to the New York Yankees for Aroldis Chapman, a move motivated by their World Series aspirations. Perhaps the most significant trade of that era came in 2016, when the Boston Red Sox acquired ace Chris Sale from the Chicago White Sox, giving up a package that included Yoán Moncada, then the game’s top prospect. These deals were bold and risky, but they reflected a willingness to go all-in for immediate success.
The Rise of Analytics and Risk Aversion
The modern era of baseball has been heavily influenced by the rise of analytics. Teams now have access to vast amounts of data, which they use to make more informed decisions about player potential and value. While this can enhance confidence in evaluations, it can also lead to a more conservative approach. As Texas Rangers GM Ross Fenstermaker noted, “We’ve become a little bit more sophisticated and evidence-based, which limits risk but also enhances confidence.” The fear of making a costly mistake with a top prospect is real, and this has contributed to the current risk-averse climate in the trade market.
The Exception to the Rule: AJ Preller and the Padres
Amidst this sea of caution, AJ Preller, president of baseball operations for the Padres, stands out as a notable exception. Preller has been willing to make bold moves, leveraging an elite farm system to acquire major-league talent. In 2022, he traded prospects CJ Abrams, James Wood, MacKenzie Gore, and Jarlin Susana to the Washington Nationals for superstar Juan Soto. More recently, he sent MLB’s top prospect, Leo DeVries, to the A’s for reliever Mason Miller. Preller’s strategy is driven by a focus on what he believes is best for the Padres, even if it means going against the industry trend. “We look at our situation and what we think is best to be competitive,” Preller said. “Sometimes, there’s value in doing it differently.”
The Future of Trades and Fan Engagement
The cautious approach to trades may seem logically sound, but it carries its own risks. By being overly careful, teams may leave themselves little margin for error and risk alienating their fan base. Fans want to see their team competing and making bold moves to win. The Padres’ aggressive strategy has kept their fan base engaged, with attendance consistently surpassing three million over the past three seasons. As Preller noted, the industry’s approach is cyclical, and he believes we may see more teams adopt a more aggressive stance in the future. “If you look at the trade deadline [in 2025], you’ll see more teams that are trying to be aggressive,” he predicted. Ultimately, winning a championship requires taking risks, and the teams that are willing to make those big swings may just find themselves hoisting the World Series trophy.
