A Tough Landscape for Starting Pitchers
The current era of baseball doesn’t exactly shine brightly for starting pitchers. Over the five-year period from 2015 to 2019, pitchers managed to rack up at least 270 strikeouts on 10 different occasions. Last season, however, no one even reached 230. Similarly, there were 15 instances during that same period when a pitcher notched at least 19 wins, a feat not achieved by any hurler last year. The league leaders in 2024, Chris Sale with a 2.38 ERA and Logan Gilbert with a 0.89 WHIP, posted impressive numbers, but these marks wouldn’t have led the league in the days of Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom. Despite the challenges, someone still has to be the best, and it’s crucial to identify the players who can make a significant impact in fantasy baseball this season.
Paul Skenes: The Young Fireballer
Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates is a highly touted candidate to be the top starting pitcher this year, with a Yahoo Average Draft Position (ADP) of 13.9. What sets Skenes apart is his raw power on the mound. He averaged 98.8 mph on his fastball, the highest among pitchers who threw at least 100 innings. His performance in 2024 was nothing short of stellar, ranking first in ERA, fifth in WHIP, and third in strikeout rate. Skenes’s success is a testament to his ability to dominate with sheer velocity. However, he doesn’t have the full season of major league experience that other veterans possess, and his 102 Stuff+ is less impressive when compared to elite starters. Additionally, pitchers with such high velocity often face a higher risk of injury, which could be a significant drawback in his quest for the top spot.
Tarik Skubal: Consistent and Hot
Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers is another strong contender, with a Yahoo ADP of 16.4. Skubal’s performance in 2024 was remarkable, as he either led or was second in wins, strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. His return from injury in 2023 was equally impressive, posting a 2.80 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and an 11.4 K/9 rate over 15 starts. Skubal’s consistency and ability to stay healthy are his greatest assets. However, if we’re being nitpicky, his 30.3% strikeout rate, while good, was only sixth among pitchers with at least 100 innings. Moreover, he doesn’t benefit from an elite offense or bullpen, which could limit his overall impact. Despite these minor concerns, Skubal’s recent performances make him a solid choice.
Zack Wheeler: The Reliable Veteran
Zack Wheeler of the Philadelphia Phillies has a Yahoo ADP of 23.8 and is known for his consistency. Over the past four seasons, he has ranked among the top four in innings, strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. This reliability is a significant advantage, as he’s a safe bet to deliver solid numbers across the board. However, Wheeler’s ceiling is lower compared to other elite starters due to a good but not elite strikeout rate. He will also turn 35 in May, which could be a factor in his performance. Despite these limitations, his track record of consistency makes him a valuable pick for any fantasy team.
Chris Sale: The Injury-Prone Ace
Chris Sale of the Atlanta Braves, with a Yahoo ADP of 39, is a double-edged sword. Sale’s potential is undeniable, as evidenced by his Cy Young Award last year and his history of racking up strikeouts—308 in 2017 and a memorable 2.11 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 2018. He has four seasons with 200 or more innings and eight with 200 or more strikeouts. However, Sale is entering his 36th year shortly after Opening Day, and his injury history is concerning. From 2021 to 2023, he made just 31 starts, making him one of the highest injury risks among fantasy aces. The Braves’ strong lineup and bullpen could help mitigate some of these risks, but his past inconsistency and injury concerns are significant hurdles.
Blake Snell: The Hot-and-Cold Phenom
Blake Snell of the Los Angeles Dodgers, with a Yahoo ADP of 39.2, is a wild card in this group. Snell has the ability to get as hot as any starter in baseball. In the second half of 2024, he led the majors with 103 strikeouts, a 1.45 ERA, and a 0.85 WHIP. He won his second Cy Young award in 2023 with a 14-9 record, 234 strikeouts, and a 2.25 ERA. Joining the Dodgers, a team known for getting the most out of their pitchers, is a huge plus. However, Snell’s career has been marked by inconsistency, and his control skills are the worst in this group. He has only made 30 starts twice in his nine-year career, raising questions about his durability. The Dodgers’ deep rotation and potential six-man setup could also limit his innings, making him a risky but high-reward pick.
Garrett Crochet: The Strikeout Machine
Garrett Crochet of the Boston Red Sox, with a Yahoo ADP of 39.8, is the youngest and one of the most intriguing candidates. His 35.1% strikeout rate in 2024 was the best among pitchers who threw at least 100 innings. The Red Sox are expected to fully utilize Crochet, making him a strong contender for the strikeout leader. His ratio estimators in 2024, in the mid-2.00s, suggest excellent performance in other categories as well. However, Crochet’s lack of starting experience—72 relief appearances and zero starts prior to 2024—raises concerns about his durability and longevity. Furthermore, his new home park in Boston is notoriously tough on left-handed pitchers. Despite these issues, if the Red Sox can manage his workload effectively, Crochet could surprise many this season.
Jacob deGrom: A Roller-Coaster Ride
Jacob deGrom of the Texas Rangers, with a Yahoo ADP of 48.6, is a name that evokes a mix of excitement and caution. In his prime, deGrom posted remarkable ratios, including a lifetime WHIP of 0.99 and an ERA of 2.52. Justin Verlander’s successful return from Tommy John surgery in 2022 offers a glimmer of hope that deGrom can also make a strong comeback. However, deGrom hasn’t thrown 100 innings since 2019, and he will turn 37 in July. His history of limited workloads and the Rangers’ less-than-stellar support make him a risky choice. If all pitchers in this article were guaranteed to make 30 starts, deGrom might be the first starter off the board due to his elite skills and potential. Nevertheless, his high downside must be carefully considered.
