The Favorites: Celtics and Thunder
The NBA post-All-Star Game landscape is setting the stage for an exciting finish to the regular season and playoffs, with the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder emerging as the top favorites to win the 2025 NBA Finals. Both teams are tied at +225 odds at BetMGM, a clear indicator of their strong positions and the high expectations surrounding them. The Thunder, in particular, have been on a tear, boasting a remarkable 44-10 record as they enter the All-Star break, leading the Western Conference by a commanding eight-game margin over the Memphis Grizzlies. Similarly, the Boston Celtics, the reigning champions, have put up a 39-16 record, but they trail the Thunder by 5.5 games in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics have had a relatively stable season, and their two wins out of three games against the Cavaliers provide a glimmer of hope for catching up. However, with fewer than 30 games left in the regular season, the odds of the Celtics closing this gap seem daunting. Despite this, the upcoming matchup on February 28 in Boston could be pivotal, as a Celtics victory would give them the tiebreaker if they manage to make up the 5.5 games.
The Thunder’s Strength in Depth
The Oklahoma City Thunder’s dominant position is a testament to their resilience and talent. One of their biggest boosts came from the return of Chet Holmgren, who had been sidelined for months due to a hip injury. Holmgren’s presence is expected to fortify their defense and add versatility to their lineup, further emphasizing the team’s depth and potential. The Thunder have managed to stay atop the Western Conference without making any significant trades, showing a strong belief in their current roster. Their offense, led by the dynamic duo of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey, has been a marvel to watch, and their defense, which has been solid all season, promises to be even more formidable with Holmgren back in the mix. The team’s ability to maintain a high level of play while integrating a key player back into the lineup is a sign of their maturity and coaching acumen, making them a formidable opponent for any team in the playoffs.
The Cavaliers’ Strategic Moves
The Cleveland Cavaliers, who are also +800 favorites to win the Finals, have been equally impressive. With a 44-10 record, they lead the Eastern Conference and are 5.5 games ahead of the defending champion Celtics. The Cavaliers made a strategic move at the trade deadline, acquiring De’Andre Hunter from the Atlanta Hawks in exchange for Caris LeVert. Hunter provides a defensive presence and shooting versatility that could be crucial in the playoffs. The Cavaliers have built a well-rounded team with a strong core, including Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, and Jarrett Allen, who have been instrumental in their success. While the Celtics may pose a challenge, the Cavaliers’ consistent performance and depth make them a strong contender for the championship. Their disciplined defense and efficient offense have been key factors in their dominance, and with Hunter in the mix, they look even more prepared to face the rigors of the postseason.
The Pursuers: Knicks, Nuggets, and Lakers
Behind the top three favorites, the New York Knicks, Denver Nuggets, and Los Angeles Lakers are the next tier of contenders, each with their own unique strengths and challenges. The Knicks, currently third in the East, are +1400 favorites, just 2.5 games behind the Celtics. Their recent performances have been solid, and they have a talented roster led by Julius Randle and RJ Barrett. However, it remains to be seen if they can maintain their momentum and close the gap. The Lakers, currently fifth in the West, are also +1400 favorites, but their prospects have been significantly bolstered by the trade for Luka Dončić. The pairing of Dončić and LeBron James has the potential to create one of the most creative offenses in the league, but the team’s defense, especially on the road, remains a concern. They were forced to sign Alex Len off the buyout market to add depth at center, which may help address some of their defensive issues.
The Nuggets’ Consistency
The Denver Nuggets, at +1400, might offer the best value among the pursuers. Nikola Jokić’s continued incredible play is the cornerstone of their success, and the team entered the All-Star break on an eight-game win streak. This streak highlights their form and consistency, which are crucial attributes in a long and grueling playoff run. The Nuggets have largely retained the core that carried them to the Finals in 2023, and their strong home record suggests they are capable of making a deep playoff run. Despite some road struggles, their overall performance and the presence of Jokić, who is arguably the best center in the league, make them a serious threat. The Nuggets’ balanced roster, with contributions from players like Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon, ensures they have multiple weapons to deploy against any opponent.
The Long Shots
While the top contenders have the limelight, several teams are still in the running with long-shot odds. The Memphis Grizzlies, at +2500, are looking to rebound from a challenging 2023-24 season marred by injuries. They have shown flashes of brilliance and have a young, talented roster that could surprise in the playoffs. The Milwaukee Bucks, at +3000, have re-tooled by trading Khris Middleton to the Washington Wizards for Kyle Kuzma. This move reflects their ongoing quest to find the right balance, but their current 29-24 record, especially their poor road performance, raises questions about their playoff readiness. The Los Angeles Clippers, at +3500, are another team with a blend of talent and experience, but their inconsistent play, particularly on the road, has kept them from climbing higher in the standings. The Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, Minnesota Timberwolves, Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns, Indiana Pacers, and Orlando Magic all have odds of +4000 or higher, but they each possess the potential to be dark horses in the playoffs. As the regular season winds down, these teams will need to fine-tune their strategies and performances to have a shot at the championship.
