Canelo Alvarez’s Audacious Claim: Bigger Than Mayweather
Canelo Alvarez, the unified super middleweight champion, has boldly predicted that his potential fight against Terence Crawford in September will generate more pay-per-view buys than his historic 2013 clash against Floyd Mayweather Jr., which drew 2.2 million PPV buys on Showtime. This audacious claim has sparked considerable debate among boxing enthusiasts and industry insiders. Despite Canelo’s immense popularity and drawing power, the skepticism surrounding Terence Crawford’s ability to attract a significant PPV audience looms large. Crawford, a 41-0 fighter with 31 knockouts, is renowned for his defensive counter-punching style, but his appeal to the general boxing audience has always been limited.
The Reality of Crawford’s Popularity
While Turki Alalshikh, a prominent boxing promoter, has high hopes for Crawford’s marketability, the evidence suggests otherwise. Crawford, despite his impressive record and skill set, has never captured the imagination of U.S. boxing fans the way more crowd-pleasing fighters have. For instance, Errol Spence Jr. (before his tragic car accident), Canelo Alvarez, David Benavidez, and Gervonta Davis have all managed to build substantial fan bases due to their exciting and dynamic fighting styles. Crawford, on the other hand, has remained a darling of the hardcore boxing community but has failed to translate his success into mainstream appeal. His recent bout against Israil Madrimov, which drew only 200,000 PPV buys on DAZN and ESPN, further underscores the issue.
The Gimmick of a 40-Year-Old Lightweight Challenging Canelo
The idea of a 40-year-old Terence Crawford moving up two weight classes to challenge Canelo for his 168-pound titles is often viewed as a gimmick. This move is perceived as a desperate attempt to generate interest in a fight that otherwise might not attract a significant audience. Crawford, known for his dominance at lightweight and welterweight, has shown no signs of struggling with the weight cut, but the leap to super middleweight is a significant one. Many boxing analysts argue that this fight does not make sense from a competitive standpoint and is more of a promotional strategy to capitalize on Canelo’s immense fan base.
The Numbers Speak for Themselves
When it comes to pay-per-view numbers, Crawford’s track record is far from impressive. His most successful PPV event was the 2023 fight against Errol Spence Jr., which drew 700,000 buys on Showtime. However, the success of that event can be largely attributed to Spence’s popularity rather than Crawford’s. Other notable PPV performances include 120,000 buys for his fight against David Avanesyan on BLK Prime, 190,000 buys for the Shawn Porter bout on ESPN, 200,000 buys for his match against Amir Khan on ESPN, and a mere 60,000 buys for his fight against Viktor Postol on HBO. These numbers clearly indicate that Crawford is not a natural PPV draw, and the lack of social media engagement and promotional efforts from his camp have not helped his cause.
Canelo’s Last Fight: A More Realistic Benchmark
Canelo’s last PPV event, against Edgar Berlanga on September 14, 2023, drew 650,000 buys. This number is a more realistic benchmark for his potential fight against Crawford, especially considering the limited appeal of the latter. Even with the potential backing of Netflix, which has been mooted as a platform for the TKO Boxing series, it is highly unlikely that the Crawford fight will surpass the 2.2 million PPV buys of the Mayweather-Canelo fight. The success of Canelo’s last event suggests that his fights with more popular and dynamic opponents are more likely to generate significant PPV interest.
The Future of the Canelo-Crawford Match
Despite the skepticism surrounding the pay-per-view potential of the Canelo-Crawford fight, the boxing world remains closely watching this potential matchup. Canelo’s prediction, while ambitious, reflects his confidence in his ability to draw fans to a fight. However, the reality of Crawford’s limited appeal to the general boxing audience and the nature of a 40-year-old lightweight challenging a super middleweight champion suggests that this fight will struggle to meet the lofty expectations set by the 2013 Mayweather-Canelo event. The boxing community will continue to debate the merits and promotional strategies of such a fight, but the numbers will ultimately speak for themselves.
