The Premier League’s European Dreams
Over the final few months of the Premier League season, teams across the top half of the table will be locked in intense battles for coveted European spots. The competition is fierce, with clubs vying for places in the UEFA Champions League, Europa League, and Europa Conference League. Beyond the title contenders, at least three, and possibly four, other clubs will secure passage to the Champions League, while at least four others will qualify for the Europa League and Europa Conference League. Additionally, those currently competing in Europe are also playing for their country’s chance at an additional qualifying spot next season.
Current Standings and European Hopes
As the season progresses, here is a breakdown of the Premier League teams currently in contention for European qualification:
Champions League Positions:
- Liverpool (23 games, 56 points, 17 wins, 5 draws, 1 loss, +35 goal difference)
- Arsenal (24 games, 50 points, 14 wins, 8 draws, 2 losses, +27 goal difference)
- Nottingham Forest (24 games, 47 points, 14 wins, 5 draws, 5 losses, +13 goal difference)
- Chelsea (24 games, 43 points, 12 wins, 7 draws, 5 losses, +16 goal difference)
- Manchester City (24 games, 41 points, 12 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses, +13 goal difference)
Europa League Position:
- Newcastle (24 games, 41 points, 12 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses, +13 goal difference)
Europa Conference League Position:
- Bournemouth (24 games, 40 points, 11 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses, +13 goal difference)
Outside the Qualifying Positions but in the Hunt:
- Aston Villa (24 games, 37 points, 10 wins, 7 draws, 7 losses, -3 goal difference)
- Fulham (24 games, 36 points, 9 wins, 9 draws, 6 losses, +4 goal difference)
- Brighton (24 games, 34 points, 8 wins, 10 draws, 6 losses, -3 goal difference)
The Impact of European Coefficients
It is expected that the Premier League will secure a fifth Champions League position via UEFA coefficients, which are based on performances in European competitions. If this does not happen, the qualifying positions across all three competitions will be adjusted by one place. Additionally, the winner of each European competition in the 2024/25 season will earn an automatic berth in the competition above the one they won. If a Premier League club wins a European competition and has already qualified via the table, their place will fall to the next club that has not already qualified for the indicated competition.
Potential Scenarios
The complexity of the qualifying process means that multiple scenarios could unfold. For instance, if the Premier League secures the extra fifth Champions League slot and an English club wins both the Champions League and Europa League this season, a total of seven Premier League clubs could qualify for the Champions League. In total, 11 Premier League clubs could qualify for Europe if they get the fifth Champions League place and an English club wins all three European competitions this season.
Additional Qualifying Routes
The winners of the 2024/25 FA Cup and EFL Cup will also earn automatic berths in the Europa League and Europa Conference League, respectively. If the winner of the FA Cup has already qualified for the Champions League or Europa League via table position, this spot will fall to the next-highest team in the table that has not already qualified. Similarly, if the winner of the EFL Cup has already qualified, their place will fall to the next-highest team in the table not to have qualified for the Europa League.
The EFL Cup Final and Its Implications
Newcastle and Liverpool are set to face each other in the EFL Cup final. If Newcastle wins, it will guarantee them a position in Europe next season, regardless of their table position. If Liverpool wins, their position will fall to the next highest table position. This scenario also applies if Newcastle wins and goes on to finish in a Champions League qualification spot.
The Future of European Qualification
Two European leagues will earn a fifth Champions League position in the 2025/26 competition, determined by UEFA coefficient based on performances in European competitions this season. It is highly likely, with a 97.9% chance according to Opta’s calculator, that the Premier League will be one of the two top performers this year. Spain and Italy are the other contenders for the two places.
The UEFA coefficient table, updated as of February 10, 2025, shows England leading with 146.250 points, followed by Italy with 138.500 points, Spain with 120.250 points, Portugal with 73.750 points, Germany with 117.375 points, and France with 97.500 points. The intense competition and the stakes involved make the final few months of the season incredibly exciting for fans and players alike.
