Serie A Preview: Lecce vs. AC Milan – Team News, Opposition Insight, Stats, and Prediction
Match Context
In the 28th round of Serie A, AC Milan faces a crucial away match against Lecce. After three consecutive defeats, the Rossoneri are desperately in need of three points to salvage their chances of securing European football. The last few weeks have been particularly challenging for AC Milan, with the team slipping to 9th place in the league standings. This pressing situation underlines the significance of the upcoming match.
Team News
Sergio Conceicao, AC Milan’s interim manager, expressed optimism during his press conference, highlighting a productive week of training at Milanello. The extra time has allowed the team to focus on crucial tactics, which could be a turning point. Positive news includes the return of Alessandro Florenzi to training after an ACL tear that kept him out since July. However, the injury list still includes Ruben Loftus-Cheek, while Mike Maignan and Strahinja Pavlovic are suspended. Yunus Musah is at risk of suspension, being one yellow card away from a ban.
The starting XI is expected to see some rotations. Theo Hernandez is likely to retain his left-back position, while Malick Thiaw will replace the suspended Pavlovic alongside Matteo Gabbia. Kyle Walker, who has recovered, is set to start on the left. In midfield, Warren Bondo is expected to make his debut, partnering with Yunus Musah. Alex Jimenez should start on the right wing, with Christian Pulisic moving to the left, leaving Rafael Leao on the bench. Tijjani Reijnders is tipped for the No.10 role, and there will be a battle between Tammy Abraham and Santiago Gimenez for the striker position.
Predicted Milan XI (4-2-3-1):
- Sportiello
- Walker, Gabbia, Thiaw, Theo
- Bondo, Musah
- Jimenez, Reijnders, Pulisic
- Abraham/Gimenez
The Opponents
Lecce has had a rollercoaster season, with more downs than ups. They parted ways with Luca Gotti in November after a poor start, bringing in former Milan manager Marco Giampaolo to steady the ship. In 15 league games, Giampaolo has managed four wins, four draws, and seven defeats, just enough to pull Lecce out of the relegation zone.
The home side is focusing on their own issues, as Giampaolo emphasized in his press conference. Key players like Santiago Pierotti, Nikola Krstovic, and Lameck Banda are set to return, providing a significant boost to the team. Ante Rebic, a former Milan star, will be on the bench and could potentially make an impact.
Predicted Lecce XI (4-3-3):
- Falcone
- Guilbert, Baschirotto, Jean, Gallo
- Coulibaly, Pierret, Berisha
- Pierotti, Krstovic, Morente
Head to Head
Historically, AC Milan holds a significant advantage over Lecce, with 26 wins, 15 draws, and only two losses in 44 encounters. In Serie A, Milan has lost just two of their 37 games against Lecce, and only against SPAL (97%) do the Rossoneri have a higher percentage of unbeaten matches. However, Milan’s current form presents an opportunity for Lecce, who are desperate for points to avoid relegation.
The last meeting at the Via del Mare ended in a 2-2 draw, with Milan squandering a two-goal lead before a late Lecce goal was disallowed by VAR. Lecce has not scored in their last four Serie A games, which could be a crucial factor in this match.
Key Facts and Stats
- AC Milan has lost only two of their 37 games against Lecce in Serie A.
- Lecce has won just one home game against AC Milan in Serie A.
- Lecce has not scored in their last four Serie A games.
- AC Milan has lost by conceding two or more goals in their last three league games.
- Only Monza has a worse points difference than AC Milan after the first 27 games compared to the previous season.
- AC Milan are averaging 1.52 points per game this season, their lowest since 2015/16.
- Sergio Conceicao has averaged 1.40 points per game as AC Milan manager in Serie A.
- Lecce and AC Milan are among the teams with the worst difference between goals scored and xG in Serie A this season.
- AC Milan has collected 16 red cards in all competitions over the last two seasons, more than any other Serie A team.
- Ante Rebic has played the most games and scored the most goals for AC Milan in his career.
- João Félix has been highly active since his Serie A debut, leading in dribbles, fouls won, and shots taken.
Ones to Watch
Warren Bondo is a player to watch as he makes his debut for Milan, having impressed during his time with Monza. Up front, Tammy Abraham is expected to start, and his performance will be crucial in breaking Lecce’s defense. Federico Baschirotto, Lecce’s defensive leader, and Nikola Krstovic will be key for the home side, requiring close attention from Milan’s attackers.
Prediction
AC Milan’s recent form has been concerning, and while Lecce hasn’t been stellar, they have managed to secure points. A full week of training under Conceicao could provide a tactical edge, but the tense atmosphere around the club remains. Given these factors, a draw seems likely.
Prediction: Lecce 1-1 AC Milan
