Long-Shot Favorites: Pittsburgh Penguins
By Gary Pearson, BetMGM
If you’re on the hunt for a long shot to advance to the 2026 Stanley Cup final, you might want to take a closer look at the Pittsburgh Penguins, who are currently listed at +10000. It’s a bet that seems almost comically low, considering the Penguins are deemed less likely to represent the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup final than even the 15th-place Buffalo Sabres, who are at +8000. It’s a statistic that might take a few reads to fully absorb.
What makes the Penguins a compelling choice, despite the odds, is the resurgence of their star player, Sidney Crosby. On pace for a career-best 59 goals, Crosby is demonstrating a level of dominance not seen since he netted 51 goals back in 2009-10. While the Penguins have seen a regression in many of their key statistics, they still boast some of the league’s best special teams. Their power play is a league-leading 33.3 percent, and their penalty kill is a solid 84.9 percent. These factors, combined with the solid goaltending from Tristan Jarry, suggest that the Penguins have more potential than the 0.99 percent chance the oddsmakers are giving them.
Rising Stars: Ottawa Senators
The Ottawa Senators are another intriguing long shot, offering +1800 odds to make it to their first Stanley Cup final since 2007. This bet reflects the competitive balance in the Eastern Conference and the surprising form of a team that is currently second in the Atlantic Division. Despite playing without their captain, Brady Tkachuk, for most of the campaign, the Senators have managed to stay afloat, thanks to a resilient effort from the remaining roster.
While Linus Ullmark’s numbers have been less than inspiring, he has shown signs of improvement, going 4-1-0 in his last five starts. The return of Tkachuk to the lineup could be a significant boost, and the team’s +1800 NHL odds, representing a 5.26 percent chance, could be a value bet. The Senators are a team on the rise, and their trajectory could change drastically once their captain returns to peak form.
Youthful Energy: Anaheim Ducks
In the Western Conference, the Anaheim Ducks are the embodiment of a fairy-tale run. Before the season, the idea of the Ducks leading the Pacific Division after 26 games would have been met with laughter. Now, it’s the Ducks’ young stars, such as Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier, who are the ones smiling. The team has the second-most prolific offense in the league, scoring 3.62 goals per game, and boasts the sixth-best points percentage (.635), tying them with the New Jersey Devils.
Carlsson, who is tied with Connor McDavid for fourth in scoring, has been a standout performer. In goal, Lukas Dostal has been solid, ranking 12th in goals saved above expected with 10.1. The Ducks’ +2200 odds of making it to their first final since their Stanley Cup win in 2007 carry an implied probability of 4.35 percent. The youthful energy and unexpected success of this team make them a compelling choice for those looking to back a long shot.
Turnaround Team: Minnesota Wild
The Minnesota Wild have had a turnaround season, especially since November. After a rough stretch of eight losses in nine games, the Wild have been one of the hottest teams in the league. Since Nov. 1, they have the second-best points percentage (.867), just behind the Colorado Avalanche (.929). A significant factor in this turnaround has been the dominant play of their goaltending duo, Filip Gustavsson and Jesper Wallstedt.
The tandem has secured five shutouts in their past 11 games, four of which were by the 23-year-old Wallstedt. Wallstedt, who is 8-0-2, has already recorded five shutouts in his first 15 NHL games, making him one of the season’s standout stories. If Gustavsson and Wallstedt can maintain their otherworldly form, the Wild have the potential to pose a serious threat to any Western Conference opponent, even those with more established reputations.
Odds and Insights
It’s worth noting the current odds for the top contenders to reach the Stanley Cup final. The Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers, who have a history of meeting in recent playoffs, are among the favorites. The Dallas Stars and Carolina Hurricanes are also in the mix, looking to break their respective conference final curses. However, the allure of a long shot can’t be understated. Teams like the Penguins, Senators, Ducks, and Wild offer the potential for a thrilling and unexpected journey to the Stanley Cup.
Conclusion
Choosing a long shot to advance to the 2026 Stanley Cup final can be a thrilling and rewarding bet. The Pittsburgh Penguins, Ottawa Senators, Anaheim Ducks, and Minnesota Wild offer different narratives that make them intriguing choices. Whether it’s the resurgence of a veteran star, the return of a key player, the unexpected success of a young team, or a dramatic turnaround, these teams all have the potential to defy the odds and make a deep playoff run. For those willing to take the risk, the rewards could be significant.
