Kings Trade Target: Jonathan Marchessault

A Bold Move in Nashville

When the Nashville Predators and their General Manager Barry Trotz dipped into the 2024 NHL Free Agency pool, they didn’t just splash; they made waves. One of their most significant signings was the 33-year-old winger Jonathan Marchessault. Marchessault had just finished a stellar season with the Vegas Golden Knights, where he recorded an impressive 42 goals and 69 points in the 2023-24 season. For Trotz, it was a no-brainer to sign Marchessault to a five-year, $27.5 million contract, along with fellow newcomers Steven Stamkos and Brady Skjei. Analysts and fans alike were quick to predict that the Predators would easily surpass their 98-point total from the previous season, with some even labeling them as potential Stanley Cup contenders. However, the reality has been far from their expectations.

The Predators’ Slide

Fast forward seven months, and the Predators are not only on track for a lower point total than last season but are currently a lottery team with virtually no hope of making the post-season. This drastic underperformance has left Trotz uncharacteristically open about his willingness to hit the reset button. As early as November, when the Predators were struggling out of the gate, Trotz made it clear that if they didn’t turn things around, a rebuild would be imminent. In one of his candid interviews, Trotz stated, "I’m trying to do some things right now. We will be limited a little because of the contracts that we have… but if we don’t get it going, then I’m going to start our rebuild plan." Unfortunately, the Predators were unable to get it going, and the specter of a full-scale rebuild looms larger by the day.

Marchessault Shines Amidst the Struggle

Despite the Predators’ overall disappointment, Jonathan Marchessault has been his usual reliable self. He has continued to produce, scoring 17 goals and 44 points in 54 games, putting him on pace for 26 goals and 67 points. This would represent the third-highest regular season point total of his career. The Los Angeles Kings, who are looking for a scoring winger to boost their power play and overall offense, have taken notice. Marchessault’s performance has not gone unnoticed, and his right-shot versatility and power play prowess make him an attractive target. Notably, both Nashville and Los Angeles have been keeping a close eye on each other, especially given that Marchessault is represented by Pat Brisson, a respected agent with ties to the Kings.

Why Marchessault Fits the Kings

The obvious reasons for the Kings to pursue Marchessault are his right-shot scoring ability and consistent power play production. Marchessault has already scored 17 of his 44 points on the power play, a significant number when compared to Kevin Fiala’s 13, who currently leads the Kings in power play points. This alone makes Marchessault a valuable addition to a team seeking to enhance its offensive capabilities. Additionally, his cap hit of $5.5 million per year is manageable, especially given the projected growth of the NHL salary cap. As the cap limit is expected to increase significantly, Marchessault’s contract becomes increasingly palatable for a team like the Kings.

The Contract Concerns

However, the length of Marchessault’s contract, combined with his age, presents a significant challenge. At 34 years old, Marchessault still has four more years left on his deal, making him 38 when the contract expires. While he remains productive today, the latter years of his contract should give any interested GM pause. The risk of a decline in performance as he ages is a real concern. The saving grace, once again, is the growing cap limit, which could mitigate the impact of his cap hit over time. This factor might make Marchessault’s contract more tolerable for a team like the Kings, who are looking to bolster their lineup without breaking the bank.

The Potential Trade Scenario

The most challenging aspect of this exercise is determining what the Kings would be willing to offer in exchange for Marchessault. If the Predators are selling to get younger, the Kings have some solid currency to offer. Jordan Spence, a promising young defenseman, could be available if the Kings are set on keeping Vladislav Gavrikov on Mikey Anderson’s right side. Additionally, the Kings are in a strong position in terms of goaltending prospects, with players like Hampton Slukynsky and Carter George potentially of interest to the Predators. It’s important to note that the Kings would need to send some salary back to make the trade work, given their current cap situation. They are projected to have $4.5 million in Trade Deadline cap space, and Jordan Spence’s $1.5 million cap hit would be sufficient to make the numbers work. However, the Kings should be cautious about how tight they want to be to the cap ceiling after a single move.