Alex Ovechkin: On the Path to Immortality
Alex Ovechkin, the Washington Capitals’ iconic forward, is on the verge of achieving a feat that has eluded even the greatest hockey players of all time. If he continues his current scoring pace, Ovechkin is set to break Wayne Gretzky’s NHL goals record before the season concludes. When he scores his 895th career goal, it will be a momentous occasion, likely marked with fanfare and celebration. The memory of Gretzky’s record-breaking goal, which he scored against the Vancouver Canucks in a 1994 game, is etched in hockey history. The game was immediately paused for a 15-minute on-ice ceremony, with Gretzky joined by his parents, wife Janet, Kings owner Bruce McNall, and NHL commissioner Gary Bettman, who was only in his second year on the job.
Return to Form and Sharp Accuracy
Ovechkin’s journey to this historic moment has not been without its challenges. After returning from a broken fibula injury post-Christmas break, he initially struggled to find his groove. However, he has since picked up his scoring pace to a level that puts Gretzky’s record well within reach. Ovechkin has scored in four of his last five games, pushing his season total to 26 goals in 39 games. This translates to exactly two-thirds of a goal per game, which is notably higher than his full career average of 0.60 goals per game. Known for his powerful and accurate shots, Ovechkin has evolved from a volume shooter to a more selective and efficient scorer. His shooting percentage has risen sharply, eclipsing 14 percent in five of the last seven years. This season, he boasts a shooting percentage of 18.4 percent, his highest mark yet.
The Timing and the Possibilities
If Ovechkin maintains his current scoring pace, he will need 24 more games to score the 16 goals necessary to surpass Gretzky’s 894 goals. The Capitals have 27 games left in their season, providing a realistic opportunity for Ovechkin to achieve this milestone. Game 24, scheduled for April 12 in Columbus, could be the historic moment. However, if he continues to score at his full career pace, he would need exactly 27 games, which means the record could fall in the season’s final game in Pittsburgh on April 17, adding an extra layer of drama and significance. Fans are no doubt hoping for a home-ice celebration, but the Capitals will play only three of their last nine games at Capital One Arena.
Could Ovechkin Be Even Faster?
The possibility of Ovechkin breaking the record in fewer games than Gretzky is not out of the question. Gretzky’s 894 goals were scored over 1,487 games spanning 20 seasons, while Ovechkin has played 1,465 games so far. If Ovechkin can score 16 goals in 22 games or fewer, he will set a new standard for the fewest games required to break the record. Before his injury on November 18, Ovechkin was on a remarkable pace, scoring 15 goals in 18 games, or 0.833 goals per game. If he can return to that form, he would need just 20 games, potentially breaking the record in Raleigh against the Carolina Hurricanes on April 2.
The Data and the Trends
Despite a common belief that Ovechkin tends to increase his scoring rate towards the end of the season, the data suggests otherwise. Over his full career, he has scored at a rate of 0.6004 goals per game before the All-Star break and 0.5991 after, a marginal difference with the early part of the season being slightly more productive. February is typically his quietest month, with an average of 0.56 goals per game. However, he recently scored in three out of four February games before the 4 Nations break, achieving an impressive 0.75 goals per game. The Capitals will play four more games in February, 14 in March, and nine in April. Unfortunately, they are not scheduled to play on March 23, the 31st anniversary of Gretzky’s record-breaking night.
A Team Leader and an NHL Legacy
Despite missing significant time earlier in the season, Ovechkin currently leads the Eastern Conference-leading Capitals in goals, with 26 compared to Tom Wilson’s 24 and Aliaksei Protas’ 22. If Ovechkin finishes the season as the team’s leading scorer, he will join an elite group of NHL players who have achieved this feat at age 39 or older. The list includes Shane Doan of the Arizona Coyotes (2015-16), Jaromir Jagr with the Dallas Stars (2012-13), Johnny Bucyk with the Boston Bruins (1975-76), and Gordie Howe with the Detroit Red Wings (1967-68). Ovechkin’s persistence and dedication have not only kept him in the game but have also made him one of the most respected and admired players in the NHL. As the Capitals resume their regular-season action, the anticipation for this historic moment is palpable, and fans and fellow players alike are eagerly watching Ovechkin’s every move.
