The Unexpected Inclusion
The inclusion of Nikolas Matinpalo in Finland’s Four Nations Faceoff entry has sparked intrigue and curiosity among Ottawa Senators fans and hockey enthusiasts alike. This 6’3", 213 lb Swedish defender, who joined the Senators’ lineup earlier in the season, has not exactly looked out of place despite the condensed ice time he has received. Matinpalo’s presence on the team’s third pairing, alongside Tyler Kleven, has been marked by a blend of physicality and solid skating, earning him a reputation as a reliable defender. However, the decision to scratch him for the crucial game against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Feb. 4 and subsequently limit his ice time has raised eyebrows and fueled discussions about his true value to the team.
Matinpalo’s Early Impressions
David Bell, the head coach of the Belleville Senators, has been effusive in his praise for Matinpalo. Bell, who has been around the hockey circuit for a long time, recognized Matinpalo’s potential early on. "He’s been the best-kept secret for about 10-12 months," Bell enthused. "The first time I saw him, I knew he was destined for the NHL. His physique, skating ability, and overall demeanor made it clear that it was just a matter of time before he got his shot." Bell’s confidence in Matinpalo stems from the player’s hardworking nature and his ability to simplify the game while making skilled plays. According to Bell, these are the qualities that often distinguish successful NHL defencemen. Matinpalo’s journey from the AHL to the NHL, and his continued improvement, has earned him a place among the team’s regulars, though his role has seen fluctuations due to the team’s lineup changes.
Chemistry with Tyler Kleven
Tyler Kleven, Matinpalo’s regular partner on the blue line, shares Bell’s sentiment. The two have built a strong partnership during the 2023-24 AHL season and have carried that chemistry into the NHL. "We’ve picked up where we were last year, where our job was to shut down top lines in the AHL," Kleven explained. "I thought we were playing really well down there towards the end of last season, and this year we’ve been consistent in our defensive play." Kleven’s observations highlight the duo’s effectiveness in limiting opponents’ scoring chances. Matinpalo’s size and reach make it difficult for opponents to generate quality chances, and their ability to shift and read the game effectively has been a key component of their success. Despite the recent reduction in Matinpalo’s ice time, Kleven maintains his belief in Matinpalo’s skills and their partnership.
The Coaching Conundrum
The reluctance of the coaching staff to demote Travis Hamonic in favor of Matinpalo has been a topic of much debate. Hamonic, despite his extensive experience, has not been performing at the level expected from an NHL defenceman. Matinpalo, on the other hand, has shown promise and adaptability, particularly when playing against the best players in the league. The question that many fans and analysts are asking is why Matinpalo, who can average 13:54 of ice time, is being benched in favor of a player who statistically has underperformed. This decision has raised questions about the coaching staff’s priorities and the metrics they are using to evaluate player performance.
Statistical Breakdown
To shed light on the decision-making process, a statistical breakdown of Tyler Kleven’s defensive partners during the 2024-25 season provides valuable insights. According to Evolving-Hockey’s data, the Senators have different outcomes depending on Kleven’s partner:
- Kleven and Matinpalo: 159.5 TOI (time on ice), 49.90% CF% (corsi for percentage), 45.38% SF% (shot for percentage), 40.39% GF% (goal for percentage), 40.27% xGF% (expected goal for percentage).
- Kleven and Bernard-Docker: 259.9 TOI, 48.73% CF%, 49.89% SF%, 55.94% GF%, 42.70% xGF%.
- Kleven and Hamonic: 151.9 TOI, 43.86% CF%, 40.84% SF%, 19.56% GF%, 51.77% xGF%.
While the Kleven-Hamonic pairing has the lowest expected goals allowed rate (xGA/60), they also give up the highest rate of shots on goal (SA/60) and goals against (GA/60). Conversely, the Kleven-Matinpalo pairing, though slightly worse in terms of shot and goal percentages, has a better overall defensive record, including a lower rate of goals against (GA/60). The rate stats show that Matinpalo and Kleven generate 1.54 goals per 60 minutes (GF/60) and allow 2.28 goals per 60 minutes (GA/60), which is a more balanced performance compared to the other pairings.
The Expected Goals Metric
Travis Green, the head coach of the Senators, has often referred to expected goals (xG) data during his media availabilities. This metric, which uses advanced statistical models to predict the likelihood of a goal being scored based on shot quality, could explain the continued trust in Hamonic. The Kleven-Hamonic pairing’s high xGF% suggests that they are allowing fewer quality scoring chances, which is a positive defensive sign. However, the high GA/60 and SA/60 rates indicate that this metric might not be the complete picture. Given the significant disparity in shot volume and the Senators’ struggle to generate quality chances while that pairing is on the ice, it would not be unreasonable to suggest that this metric could regress over time, leading to a re-evaluation of their effectiveness.
Fan and Analyst Reactions
The inclusion of Matinpalo in Finland’s Four Nations Faceoff, coupled with his recent benching and reduced ice time, has not gone unnoticed. Senators fans and hockey analysts alike have taken to social media and forums to express their views. While some argue that the coaching staff should give Matinpalo more opportunities based on his performance and potential, others acknowledge the coaching staff’s reliance on xG data and Hamonic’s experience. The debate is ongoing, and it reflects the broader discussion about the role of advanced statistics in hockey. For now, Matinpalo’s inclusion in the Four Nations Faceoff is a testament to his skills and the confidence he has earned from his international coaches, even if his NHL role has been somewhat limited.
