The Unexpected Choice: Nikolas Matinpalo’s Rise
The selection of Nikolas Matinpalo for Finland’s Four Nations Faceoff team has certainly raised a few eyebrows in Ottawa. This is not because of any lack of performance but rather due to the unexpected nature of his inclusion. Since joining the Senators, the 6’3", 213 lb Swede has steadily built a respectable reputation, proving himself as a capable NHL defender. Matinpalo has seamlessly integrated into the team’s third pairing alongside Tyler Kleven, displaying a combination of size and skating that has earned him the trust of his coaches and peers. However, with Nick Jensen’s return from injury on February 4, Matinpalo’s role has become increasingly marginalized. This shift in playing time, particularly given Matinpalo’s consistent and solid performances, has left many wondering if he has been unfairly sidelined.
A Closer Look at Matinpalo’s Early Career
David Bell, the head coach of the Belleville Senators, has been effusive in his praise for Matinpalo. He describes him as "the best-kept secret for about 10-12 months," highlighting how Matinpalo’s physical attributes and on-ice demeanor marked him as an NHL-caliber defenceman from the start. Bell emphasizes Matinpalo’s hard work and assertiveness, noting that he has adapted well to the smaller North American ice surface. "He keeps it simple, but he’s skilled enough to make some skilled plays. He knows what he is. He’s a hard to play against guy that does everything hard," Bell explained. His low maintenance requirements, both for trainers and coaches, further solidify his potential. Bell’s confidence in Matinpalo’s future in the NHL is evident, and his words paint a picture of a player who has not only met but exceeded expectations.
Matinpalo and Kleven: A Promising Partnership
Tyler Kleven, Matinpalo’s primary partner on the defensive unit, shares Bell’s optimism. Having played alongside Matinpalo for the entire 2023-24 AHL season, Kleven believes that their chemistry is a significant asset. "We’ve picked up where we were last year where our job was to shut down top lines in the AHL," Kleven remarked. He noted that their partnership has been strong, particularly defensively, and that they have spent a considerable amount of time together this season. Kleven praised Matinpalo’s size and ability to take away space, which has been crucial in neutralizing opponents’ attacks. "He’s big and rangy. It makes it hard on the other team. They don’t have a lot of time and space. We work well together and shift around the ice pretty effectively," Kleven added. Their partnership is characterized by a defensive mindset and effectiveness in limiting the opposition’s scoring opportunities.
The Statistical Case: Matinpalo vs. Hamonic
The statistical performance of Matinpalo and Kleven’s pairing has been a subject of interest, especially as it compares to other defensive units. According to data from Evolving-Hockey, Matinpalo and Kleven have logged 159.5 minutes of even-strength ice time, with the Senators controlling 49.90% of shot attempts (CF%), 45.38% of shots on goal (SF%), and 40.39% of goals (GF%). While these numbers are slightly lower compared to Kleven’s pairing with Ben Hutton (now known as Bernard-Docker), they are significantly better than the pairing with Travis Hamonic. Kleven and Hamonic, despite giving up more shots and goals, have a better expected goal rate (xGF%) at 51.77%, compared to 40.27% with Matinpalo. This metric suggests that Kleven and Hamonic are allowing fewer high-quality chances, which could explain their continued presence in the lineup.
Travis Hamonic: A Case of Statistical Disparity
The inclusion of Travis Hamonic in discussions adds another layer of complexity. Despite Hamonic’s well-documented struggles, he continues to see ice time. The data shows that while Hamonic and Kleven’s pairing gives up more shots and goals, they have a lower expected goals allowed rate (xGA/60) of 1.94, compared to 2.53 with Matinpalo. This disparity in metrics has led to some debate among fans and analysts. Head coach Travis Green has often referred to expected goal data in his media availabilities, suggesting that this metric may carry more weight in his decision-making. However, the lower shot and goal generation rates with Hamonic raise questions about the long-term sustainability of this pairing. Matinpalo, on the other hand, has shown a more balanced approach, generating a higher rate of shots and goals while maintaining a solid defensive presence.
A Bright Future for Matinpalo
Despite the current situation, the future looks bright for Nikolas Matinpalo. His performances in both the AHL and NHL have been consistently strong, and the positive feedback from both coaches and teammates is a testament to his potential. While the reduced playing time may be frustrating, it is not uncommon for young players to face such challenges as they navigate the ups and downs of a professional career. The Senators’ front office and coaching staff will need to carefully consider the long-term benefits of Matinpalo’s continued development, potentially giving him more opportunities to showcase his talents. The data and the praise from those close to him suggest that Matinpalo has the makings of a reliable NHL defenceman, and his journey is far from over. For now, his inclusion in the Four Nations Faceoff is a well-deserved recognition of his hard work and potential.
