Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev: A Clash of Titans
On Saturday, the highly anticipated matchup between Alex Pereira and Magomed Ankalaev will take center stage at UFC 313 in Las Vegas. For Pereira, this is a crucial title defense, while for Ankalaev, it represents a seminal opportunity to dethrone the current light heavyweight champion. This fight has been a topic of conversation for nearly two years, with many fans and analysts considering it one of the most significant tests for Pereira. As the fight approaches, the question looms: will Pereira maintain his reign, or will Ankalaev emerge as the new king of the division?
Alex Pereira: The Master of the Left Hook and Low Kicks
This is the fourth time in the past 12 months that I’ve analyzed Alex Pereira’s strategies, and it’s becoming increasingly challenging to find new and interesting angles. At this point, everyone knows what Pereira brings to the table, and yet, no one at 205 pounds has managed to stop him. Pereira’s game is built around two fundamental tools: his left hook and his low kicks. These are the Scylla and Charybdis of the MMA world, and while the catastrophic left hook often steals the headlines, it’s the subtle devastation of the low kicks that will be Pereira’s primary key to victory on Saturday.
In The Odyssey, Circe advises Odysseus to choose Scylla because Charybdis will sink the entire ship, while Scylla will merely kill a few men. This analogy holds true for Pereira’s striking, where fighters are so focused on avoiding the brutal end of a left hook that they often fall prey to the low kicks, which ultimately render them useless down the stretch. Magomed Ankalaev, in particular, is susceptible to low kicks. Jan Blachowicz nearly beat Ankalaev with nothing more than calf kicks and a dream, and Pereira is a vastly superior kicker to Blachowicz.
Therefore, the path for Pereira on Saturday is straightforward: sweep the leg. It’s one of Pereira’s best weapons and Ankalaev’s biggest weaknesses. 1+1=2. No need to complicate this. In the cage, Pereira should focus on taking the legs out from under Ankalaev at every available opportunity. Ankalaev will likely attempt to wrestle, but that will become increasingly difficult as the fight progresses and his legs turn to jelly. Frequent low kicks, combined with liberal use of teeps to maintain distance, should make Pereira a formidable opponent.
Magomed Ankalaev: The Grappling Ace with a Dangerous Striker’s Edge
While the above section might make it seem like Ankalaev is at a significant disadvantage, nothing could be further from the truth. Ankalaev is no pushover and has the best chance of anyone at 205 pounds to dethrone Pereira for several reasons. First and foremost, his grappling is exceptional. Although Pereira is a BJJ black belt, the consensus is that it will be easier to defeat Pereira on the mat than on the feet, where he can’t left hook opponents off his back. Ankalaev is the premier wrestler in the light heavyweight division and has successfully taken down every opponent he’s attempted to take down. Pereira gave up several takedowns to Jan Blachowicz, who isn’t nearly the wrestler Ankalaev is, so it’s a fair bet to assume Ankalaev can get some takedowns on Saturday.
If Ankalaev can secure takedowns, this fight becomes much harder for Pereira. Ankalaev’s best skill is his ability to punish opponents when he gets top position. Anthony Smith found this out the hard way, and the photo above this section shows how much fun Jan Blachowicz had under Ankalaev. When Ankalaev scores takedowns, he can make them count, which is something Blachowicz struggled to do against Pereira.
However, Ankalaev isn’t forced into a grappling-only strategy. While he has a clear weakness to low kicks, he is a dangerous striker in his own right. He possesses big power, sneaky good timing, and a crafty right hand he can throw on the counter or from the lead when he switches to southpaw. Additionally, Ankalaev has a good chin, having only been dropped once in his career and never knocked out. While Pereira is the better striker, the history of MMA shows that the "better striker" doesn’t always come out on top.
X Factor: Peripheral Variables
One of the reasons this fight is so intriguing is the peripheral variables that could play a significant role. For Pereira, this is his fourth fight in less than 12 months, which is a grueling schedule to maintain at this level, especially considering he’s also flying all over the world with other obligations. Is he as focused as he should be? Will it even matter if he isn’t? Who knows!
On the Ankalaev side, he’s currently in the middle of Ramadan, a period of fasting that adds another layer of complexity. While he’s taking some liberties with fasting, this is still a significant variable to consider when making weight and getting mentally and physically prepared for the biggest fight of his life. To the best of my knowledge, this is only the second time Ankalaev has fought during Ramadan, and the stakes are much higher than a WFCA fight in 2016.
Prediction: A Close and Compelling Match
My head tells me that this is a surprisingly good fight for Pereira. Ankalaev has a clear weakness that Pereira can exploit, and while Ankalaev is a skilled wrestler, Pereira is better defensively than people give him credit for. However, I can’t shake the vibes of everything this week. The MMA Gods hate plans, and people are already penciling Pereira in for superfights with Jon Jones and Tom Aspinall. Pereira’s frequent fight schedule concerns me. No one fights this often as a champion for a reason: eventually, the die roll comes up bad.
In a shocking turn of events, my gut tells me that Ankalaev will land a right hand and put Pereira to sleep somewhere in the middle of the fight.
Final Thought: A Night of High Stakes
When the cage closes at UFC 313, both fighters will bring their best to the Octagon. Pereira’s lethal combination of the left hook and low kicks will face off against Ankalaev’s formidable grappling and dangerous striking. The outcome of this fight will not only determine who holds the light heavyweight title but also who will be the next big name in MMA. Regardless of the result, fans are in for a thrilling and highly competitive bout.
