Alex Pereira’s Reign at a Crossroads
Alex Pereira’s light heavyweight championship reign has been nothing short of spectacular in 2024, but the calendar turning to 2025 brings a fresh challenge that could define his legacy. His defenses have been marked by a series of fighters who, while formidable, lacked the technical prowess to fully exploit his grappling vulnerabilities. However, the tables may turn this Saturday at UFC 313, where Pereira will face Magomed Ankalaev, a rising star known for his clinical striking and strong wrestling game.
MMA Fighting’s Alexander K. Lee, Mike Heck, and Jed Meshew delve into the dynamics of this high-stakes matchup to predict how Pereira’s hot streak might end. Lee believes that Ankalaev’s best strategy is to mix his striking with frequent takedowns, wearing Pereira down before capitalizing on a KO/TKO opportunity. This approach, Lee argues, will end Pereira’s reign with a bang, not a whimper. Meshew, while acknowledging the remote possibility of an Ankalaev KO, underscores that Pereira’s superior striking makes a prolonged exchange risky. Instead, he predicts a decisive win for Ankalaev through his grappling dominance. Heck, on the other hand, leans towards Pereira but admits that if Ankalaev wins, it will likely be through relentless takedowns, turning the fight into a less thrilling affair.
The Co-Main Event: Gaethje vs. Fiziev
The co-main event at UFC 313 features a showdown between Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev, two fighters who are eager to stake their claim for a title shot. However, the path to a title fight is far from clear. Heck firmly believes that neither Gaethje nor Fiziev should be granted an immediate title shot, citing the depth and competitiveness of the lightweight division. He suggests that a dominant performance by Gaethje, especially a finish, might earn him a title opportunity, but only if a series of unusual events unfold, such as Jack Della Maddalena upsetting Belal Muhammad and Islam Makhachev moving up to welterweight.
Lee speculates on a more convoluted scenario, envisioning a chain reaction starting with Della Maddalena’s upset victory, leading to Makhachev pursuing a second title at welterweight, and ultimately paving the way for a vacant lightweight title bout between Giga Chikadze and Rafael Fiziev. Despite the complexity and unlikeliness of this scenario, Lee emphasizes the unpredictable nature of the MMA world, where such wild outcomes are not entirely out of the question.
The Wild Card: Jalin Turner
While the main and co-main events grab the headlines, the UFC 313 card offers several intriguing bouts that could launch lesser-known fighters into the spotlight. Meshew, for instance, highlights Jalin Turner, a lightweight with a unique and captivating style. Turner, known for his massive frame and獠牙般的格斗风格，最近遇到了一些挑战，但他在本次比赛中对阵Ignacio Bahamondes时有机会证明自己。Meshew认为，如果Turner能够发挥他的全部潜力，展示出他的独特技能和压倒性的力量，那么他仍然是一位不可忽视的威胁。尽管他近期的表现不佳，但如果能在本场比赛中大放异彩，Turner有望重新回到人们的视野中。
The Rising Star: Mauricio Ruffy
Another fighter to watch on this card is Mauricio Ruffy, a lightweight with a reputation for delivering exciting and unpredictable bouts. Heck points out that Ruffy’s performance against veterans like King Green will be crucial in determining whether he is a Drew Dober-like fighter with a strong fan base but limited ceiling, or a rising star with the potential to climb the ranks. A dominant win over Green, who has spoiled many promising fighters in the past, would be a significant step forward for Ruffy and could cement his status as a fighter to watch in the lightweight division.
The Future of Featherweight: Mairon Santos
Mairon Santos, the young Brazilian featherweight, is another prospect worth keeping an eye on. Lee, who has a soft spot for Ultimate Fighter winners, is particularly excited about Santos’s potential. Despite being a late pick in TUF 32, Santos impressively won the tournament, showcasing his skills and potential. Currently training under the guidance of Eric Nicksick at Xtreme Couture, Santos is poised to make a big impact in 2025. A strong performance against Francis Marshall could put Santos on the radar for a top-15 spot in 2026, solidifying his position as a promising featherweight prospect.
The Bigger Picture
As UFC 313 approaches, the card is poised to deliver a mix of high-stakes title implications and opportunities for emerging talent. The main event between Alex Pereira and Magomed Ankalaev promises to be a pivotal moment in the light heavyweight division, potentially marking the end of Pereira’s reign or the continuation of his dominance. Meanwhile, the co-main event and undercard bouts offer exciting prospects for fighters looking to make a name for themselves. Whether it’s the seasoned champions or the up-and-coming stars, UFC 313 is set to be a memorable event that could reshape the landscape of the lightweight and featherweight divisions.
