UFC Vegas 103: Kape vs. Almabayev Headlines a Mixed Fight Card
This Saturday, the UFC brings its action to the APEX with UFC Vegas 103, a card headlined by a short-notice flyweight bout between Manel Kape and Asu Almabayev. Initially, Kape was set to faceBrandon Royval in what was shaping up to be a No. 1 contender matchup, but with Royval’s withdrawal, the spotlight now falls on Almabayev. While the rest of the fight card might not be the most memorable, there are numerous opportunities for fans and bettors to engage and potentially profit.
Asu Almabayev: A Tough Match for Kape
Manel Kape, known affectionately as "Starboy," is a fan favorite with a dangerous striking game. However, the odds for Saturday’s main event might surprise many, as Kape is currently listed at -196, while Almabayev is sitting at +176. This line suggests a more favorable outcome for Kape, but the reality of the matchup might be different. Almabayev is a hard-nosed grinder, and his style could pose significant challenges for Kape. Kape has shown improvement in his ground game, but he still concedes numerous takedowns, which could be detrimental against a fighter like Almabayev. Muhammad Mokaev, another skilled wrestler, managed to secure a decision over Kape by repeatedly taking him down. While Almabayev might not have Mokaev’s athleticism, he is a more seasoned ground fighter. If the fight goes the full 25 minutes, the odds are that Almabayev will outlast Kape and come out victorious.
Cody Brundage: A No-Brainer Underdog
Cody Brundage is another fighter who seems to be undervalued by the oddsmakers. He’s listed at +110 for his co-main event fight against Julian Marquez. Marquez, on the other hand, has been in a rough patch, losing his last three fights and showing consistent weakness in his defensive wrestling. Brundage’s ability to control the fight on the mat is his strongest suit, and unless Marquez pulls off a miraculous guillotine choke, which has been his go-to move, Brundage should dominate. While Marquez has submitted several fighters, including notable opponents like Bo Nickal and Rodolfo Vieira, he’s far from the level of skill needed to take down Brundage. For a fighter who has not been submitted before, this bet seems like a solid pick.
Andrea Lee: A Tale of Destiny
Andrea Lee, who steps into the octagon against JJ Aldrich in a preliminary bout, might seem like an underdog due to her five-fight losing streak. However, this situation feels like a turning point forLee. The fights that contributed to her losing streak were often close, and Aldrich, despite being a formidable opponent, isn’t in the same class as the fighters Lee has faced. Lee has the superior technical skills, both on the feet and on the mat. Her ability to outwork Aldrich and her superior wrestling skills give her a clear edge. If this were any other fight, Lee would likely be the favorite, but her losing streak has unfairly skewed the odds. This could be the perfect opportunity for Lee to turn her fortune around and secure a much-needed win.
Mario Pinto: A Promising UFC Debut
Mario Pinto makes his UFC debut on Saturday against Austen Lane, and the odds are in Pinto’s favor for a knockout or technical knockout win at -145. Pinto, a standout from the most recent season of Contender Series, has been compared to Alex Pereira due to his size, poise, and powerful striking. Lane, while a seasoned fighter, has a history of losing by knockout. In his 19-fight career, he has lost five times, all by KO. Pinto, on the other hand, has secured five of his nine wins by knockout. Given the matchup, Pinto’s power and Lane’s vulnerability make a KO/TKO victory a highly probable outcome. This prop bet is a straightforward play based on Pinto’s recent form and Lane’s defensive shortcomings.
Danny Barlow vs. Sam Patterson: Quick Action Expected
The prop bet for the fight between Danny Barlow and Sam Patterson is an under 1.5 rounds at -110, and this one seems like a no-brainer. Barlow, known for his aggressive style, doesn’t prioritize defense. This trait aligns well with Patterson, who also prefers to finish fights quickly. Five of Barlow’s eight career fights have ended in the first round, and eight of Patterson’s 15 fights have had the same fate, including three in a row. The aggression and lack of defensive focus from both fighters make it highly likely that this bout will not last more than one and a half rounds. A quick, explosive fight is expected, and the odds reflect this.
Wrapping Up the Card
This week, we won’t be pushing a parlay bet due to the lack of strong lines. However, a Portugal Parlay with Kape and Pinto might have been tempting, but since I’m backing Almabayev, that’s not an option. Last week, we kept things small, but even then, we fell short. If only some of the close calls had gone our way, the outcome might have been different. Despite the setbacks, the goal is to learn from each experience and improve. Here’s hoping for better luck this week. Enjoy the fights, and remember to bet responsibly.
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