Alonso’s Skepticism on F1’s Competitive Landscape
Fernando Alonso, a two-time Formula 1 champion, is not convinced by Lando Norris’s optimistic prediction that more than four teams could win races in the upcoming 2025 season. In 2024, the competitive dynamic saw Red Bull, Ferrari, McLaren, and Mercedes all take victories, marking a significant shift from 2023, where Red Bull dominated almost entirely. After pre-season testing in 2024, Alonso expressed his doubts about the season’s potential for widespread competition, noting that "19 drivers in the paddock now will think that [they] will not win the championship" due to Red Bull’s overwhelming performance. However, McLaren’s steady improvement throughout the year changed the narrative, putting Lando Norris in contention and creating pressure on Max Verstappen.
The Current Scenario and Alonso’s Outlook
Alonso acknowledges that the 2025 season might be more open, especially since pre-season testing suggested that McLaren has an advantage this year. "I think it’s more open this year," Alonso remarked. "Last year it felt like Max had a big advantage in winter testing, and this year it seems that maybe McLaren has an advantage. But I didn’t follow the test, I only read the news this morning. I think it’s going to be more open and hopefully close until the end." Despite this, Alonso remains pragmatic and cautious, emphasizing that the competitive landscape of F1 has become highly predictable due to technological advancements and high reliability standards.
Norris’s Confident Prediction
Lando Norris, on the other hand, is more bullish about the potential for a diverse set of winners in 2025. When asked by Autosport about his prediction, Alonso responded with a touch of sarcasm, suggesting that Norris is only willing to make such a claim "now that he has the winning car." This comment reflects Alonso’s seasoned perspective, where he has seen drivers and teams adjust their expectations based on their current form and resources. Norris’s newfound confidence, rooted in McLaren’s performance, is understandable but may be overly optimistic.
The Role of Reliability and Simulation
Alonso’s skepticism is grounded in the current state of F1 technology and operations. He points out that the reliability of modern cars has significantly reduced the number of retirements and incidents, making races more predictable. "Reliability is so good these days; there are not many retirements, there are not many incidents. Strategies are quite defined," Alonso explained. "Even on Thursday before coming to the grand prix, you know exactly it is going to be one stop, two stops, which tyre you will use. Everything is so perfect now that it is difficult to change or to make a race unpredictable. It has to be crazy weather or something." This high level of precision and control has diminished the excitement and unpredictability that F1 fans often crave.
The Impact of Weather on Competition
While Alonso remains doubtful about the possibility of more teams winning races, he does leave room for one factor that can introduce unpredictability: extreme weather conditions. "Hopefully there are multiple winners and it is going to be a tight championship. Last year it was already a very good one and hopefully this year it is even better," he said. Weather can indeed be a game-changer, as seen in past seasons where rain and other adverse conditions have shuffled the deck, providing unexpected opportunities for underdog teams and drivers to shine.
A Balanced View on the Future of F1
Despite his reservations, Alonso hopes for an exciting and competitive season. The 2024 championship was a testament to the growing competitiveness among the top teams, and Alonso believes that 2025 could build on that momentum. However, the veteran driver is wary of the high reliability and sophisticated simulation technologies that can stifle the spontaneous and unpredictable nature of racing. As the season progresses, the true balance of power will become more apparent, and fans will have the opportunity to witness whether Alonso’s caution or Norris’s optimism prevails. For now, the stage is set for a thrilling season, with the potential for unexpected outcomes always a tantalizing possibility.
