The NASCAR Cup Series Heads to Atlanta for the Ambetter Health 400
As the NASCAR Cup Series prepares to roll into Atlanta Motor Speedway this weekend for the Ambbetter Health 400 on FOX, excitement and anticipation are high among both fans and bettors. The 2025 season is shaping up to be a thrilling one, with several top drivers vying for the championship and individual race victories. The event in Atlanta is not just a race but a precursor to the bigger battles that will unfold over the coming months. With the championship finale set for Phoenix Raceway in November, the track may see different strategies and performances that could provide a hint of who might come out on top. Let’s dive into the odds and predictions at DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 18, and get some insights from NASCAR motorsports insider Bob Pockrass.
Top Contenders for the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship
The top contenders for the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series championship are a mix of seasoned veterans and rising stars, each with their own strengths and potential. Leading the pack is Kyle Larson at +500, followed closely by Christopher Bell at +550 and William Byron at +600. Ryan Blaney, the 2023 champion, is a strong bet at +700, while Denny Hamlin is pegged at +750. Joey Logano, who secured back-to-back titles in 2022 and 2024, is listed at +900, and Tyler Reddick shares the same odds. Chase Elliott, a consistent performer, is at +1000.
Bob Pockrass, a seasoned NASCAR analyst, believes that Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney are the drivers to watch for the championship. Larson, the 2021 champion, has consistently shown speed and has the potential to secure multiple wins this season. Blaney, although he narrowly missed out on the 2024 title, has the experience and the track record to be a formidable contender. Team Penske’s dominance, having won three consecutive titles, suggests that they have found a strategic edge, particularly at Phoenix Raceway. Blaney, riding on this momentum, is likely to be a strong favorite, especially as this could be the final year for the championship to be held at Phoenix.
Long Shots and Dark Horses
While the top contenders are the favorites, the list of long shots and dark horses is equally intriguing. Chase Briscoe, at +1800, is a driver who has shown flashes of brilliance and could surprise with a strong season. Ty Gibbs, at +2200, is another young talent with the potential to break through and secure his first Cup Series victory. Ross Chastain and Kyle Busch, both at +2500, have the experience and the skills to mount a serious challenge. Brad Keselowski, a former champion, is listed at +2800, adding his experience to the mix.
Pockrass points out that Shane Van Gisbergen, at +6500, is a unique addition to the NASCAR landscape. In his first full season, the New Zealander is expected to excel on road courses, where his background in international racing could give him an edge. However, the demands of a 38-race schedule and the need for precise teamwork might limit his chances of multiple wins. Other long shots like Bubba Wallace (+5500) and AJ Allmendinger (+25000) offer potential value for bettors looking to take a chance on a less obvious winner. The odds for these drivers reflect the uncertainties and the potential for unexpected performances that make NASCAR so exciting.
Race Win Totals: Who Will Shine in 2025?
The race win totals for the 2025 season provide another layer of intrigue. AJ Allmendinger is given a 50% chance to win at least one race, with odds of +110 for over 0.5 wins and -140 for under 0.5. Carson Hocevar, another rookie, is slightly less favored at +150 for over 0.5 wins and -190 for under 0.5. Chase Elliott, who is expected to be a strong competitor, has a moderate total win prediction of 1.5, with -135 odds for over and -105 for under. Christopher Bell is projected to win more than 3.5 races, with -110 for over and -125 for under, indicating his potential for a standout season.
Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch are both given a 50% chance to win 3.5 races, with Hamlin at +110 for over and -150 for under, and Busch at +110 for over and -140 for under. Kyle Larson, the top championship favorite, is projected to win more than 5.5 races, with +100 odds for over and -135 for under. Ryan Blaney is expected to win at least 2.5 races, with -175 for under and +135 for over. Tyler Reddick, with +125 for over 3.5 wins and -165 for under, could also have a strong season. William Byron is seen as the most consistent, with -115 odds for both over and under 3.5 wins.
Potential Upsets and Underdog Stories
Despite the overwhelming odds against them, several drivers could have their breakout seasons in 2025. Ty Gibbs, at +10000, is a prime example. Gibbs has been on the verge of victory several times in his first three years and is expected to finally secure his first Cup Series win this year. His determination and the support from his team could make him a dark horse to watch.
Chase Briscoe, at +1800, is another underdog with a lot to prove. Known for his aggressive driving style and occasional flashes of brilliance, Briscoe could have a season where everything clicks, leading to a significant number of race wins. Similarly, Ross Chastain, at +2500, has the potential to surprise. Chastain’s resourcefulness and ability to make the most of every opportunity have earned him a reputation as a driver who can perform under pressure. Shane Van Gisbergen, with his international experience, could also break through on road courses, providing a new narrative to the season.
Strategic Insights and Team Dynamics
Strategic calculations and team dynamics will play a crucial role in determining the season’s outcomes. Team Penske, with its recent string of championships, has a clear advantage, especially at Phoenix Raceway. The team’s ability to fine-tune their cars for speed and reliability on the final stretch of the season cannot be underestimated. Kyle Larson’s team, Hendrick Motorsports, will be working hard to close the gap, particularly on short tracks where they have been strong in the past. The potential introduction of a softer tire for the championship race at Phoenix could also shake up the competition, giving other teams a chance to close the performance gap.
Hendrick Motorsports, with drivers like William Byron and Chase Elliott, has the depth and experience to challenge Team Penske’s dominance. Christopher Bell, driving for Joe Gibbs Racing, has the backing of a strong team and the personal motivation to secure his first championship. The competition among these top teams is likely to be fierce, with each driver and crew chief bringing their unique strategies to the table.
The Human Side of NASCAR
Beyond the numbers and the strategy, NASCAR is a sport rich in personal stories and human drama. Joey Logano’s back-to-back championships have solidified his status as a formidable competitor, but they also highlight the resilience and teamwork that are essential in NASCAR. His journey from a young, promising talent to a seasoned champion is a testament to the dedication and hard work required to succeed in this demanding sport.
Kyle Larson, the 2021 champion, has also had his share of ups and downs. After his six-victory season in 2024, he will be looking to build on that success and make a strong case for the 2025 title. His experience and the support from Hendrick Motorsports will be crucial in navigating the challenges of the season. Meanwhile, rookie drivers like Carson Hocevar and Ty Gibbs bring a fresh perspective and a new energy to the sport. Their stories of perseverance and the support they receive from their teams add an emotional layer to the racing, making it more than just a competition of speed and skill.
In conclusion, the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season promises to be a thrilling ride, with a mix of familiar faces and new talents vying for the top spots. The Ambetter Health 400 in Atlanta is just the beginning, setting the stage for a season filled with excitement, strategy, and unexpected turns. Whether you’re a die-hard fan or a casual observer, there’s plenty to look forward to as the season unfolds.
