The Ultimate College Football Showdown
Can you ask for much more in college football conference championship odds than No. 1 vs. No. 2? Saturday night on FOX, that’s exactly what we’re getting: Ohio State vs. Indiana, in a battle of unbeatens for the Big Ten title and presumably the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff. “It doesn’t get any better than this, 1 vs. 2,” said Joey Feazel, head of football trading at Caesars Sports. This game doesn’t just offer the thrill of two top-ranked teams facing off; it also has significant implications for the Heisman Trophy race. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is the current favorite, with Ohio State QB Julian Sayin close behind. “Mendoza has a chance to show he can play with the best of them,” Feazel noted.
A Closer Look at the Big Ten Champions
Ohio State isn’t just excelling on the field with a 12-0 record straight up (SU). The Buckeyes are also delivering for bettors, boasting a nation-best 10-1-1 against the spread (ATS). On the other hand, Indiana is a perfect 12-0 SU but a more middling 7-5 ATS, despite their high-scoring prowess. The Hoosiers have scored 55 or more points six times this year. Caesars Sports opened Ohio State as a 5.5-point favorite for this neutral-site game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. By Monday, the line was down to Buckeyes -4.5, and it dropped to -4 on Wednesday for Saturday’s 8 p.m. ET clash on FOX. “There’s some surprising line movement going toward Indiana, which is not really reflective of the action we’re seeing,” Feazel explained. While early sharp play came in on Indiana +5.5, the public is mostly backing the favorite. “I expect to see some money come in on Indiana moneyline,” Feazel said, noting that Hoosiers supporters are betting on an outright upset.
Expert Insights: Paul Stone on the Big Ten
College football betting expert Paul Stone is already involved with Big Ten Championship odds, coming off a correct forecast of Texas covering as a 2-point home underdog against Texas A&M. Stone noted that Ohio State and Indiana are virtual locks to participate in the 12-team College Football Playoff, which informs his decision to take Indiana as a 4-point underdog. “I think this game carries more meaning for Indiana,” Stone said. “Both schools are making the Playoff regardless of what happens on the field Saturday. It would mean the world to Indiana to knock off Ohio State. On the other hand, if Ohio State loses, it still has a chance to be the two-time defending national champion. Nothing really changes for the Buckeyes.”
SEC Showdown: Alabama vs. Georgia
A week ago, unbeaten Texas A&M was in the driver’s seat for an SEC Championship Game berth, likely to face Alabama. However, A&M’s loss to Texas opened the door for Georgia to reach the conference final. Alabama (10-2 SU/7-4-1 ATS) has one more loss than Georgia (11-1 SU/5-7 ATS) but has been better for bettors. In Week 5, the Crimson Tide went to Athens and beat the Bulldogs 24-21. Despite this, Caesars opened Georgia as a 1.5-point favorite for this quasi-neutral-site game at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Early bettors followed the bookmaker’s lead for a 4 p.m. ET Saturday kickoff. “We’ve seen sharp action on Georgia and even general action is coming in on Georgia,” Feazel said Wednesday. “Alabama needs this big time. If the Crimson Tide lose, there are questions about whether they get into the Playoff.”
ACC Championship: Duke vs. Virginia
Duke vs. Virginia in the ACC Championship Game was not what oddsmakers nor CFP committee members expected or wanted. The Blue Devils (7-5 SU/5-6-1 ATS) won a five-team second-place tiebreaker in the ACC, advancing to meet the first-place Cavaliers (10-2 SU/8-4 ATS). Despite the disparity in records, Caesars rates these two teams fairly close. Virginia opened as a 2.5-point favorite and has been bet up to -3.5 for a neutral-site game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C. “If Duke wins this game, which it certainly is capable of, we’re gonna see two non-Power 4 teams in the Playoff,” Feazel said. Based on CFP rules, this scenario would mean James Madison and either Tulane or North Texas will be ranked ahead of Duke, leading to significant drama. “We are seeing a lot of Virginia action on this game,” Feazel noted. “But Virginia is a big need for us in the ACC futures market.”
Big 12 and CFP Futures
In the Big 12 Championship Game, BYU and Texas Tech meet for the second time in four weeks. On Nov. 8, the Red Raiders dominated the Cougars, rolling 29-7 as 13.5-point home favorites. No surprise, Caesars again made Texas Tech (11-1 SU/10-2 ATS) a sizable favorite, opening at -12 and peaking at -13.5 early this week. As of midnight ET on Wednesday, the Red Raiders stood at -12.5 (-120) vs. BYU (11-1 SU/9-3 ATS), for Saturday’s noon ET kickoff at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. “Like Ohio State, Texas Tech is another team that has been absolutely dominant,” Feazel said. “They’re all over Texas Tech, similar to how they’ve been every week.” Another significant aspect of this weekend’s action is the College Football Playoff futures market. A recent $40,000 wager at BetMGM on Georgia +1000 to win the national championship could net a $400,000 profit. However, a $615,000 loss by another bettor on Texas, Penn State, and Clemson serves as a reminder to wager responsibly.
