The Big Night in Showbiz: 2025 Academy Awards
This Sunday marks the biggest event in the world of entertainment: the 97th Academy Awards. While the NFL’s Super Bowl is a behemoth of sports, the Oscars are the pinnacle of film and celebrity culture. For many, it’s not just a night to celebrate the best in cinema but also an opportunity to engage in some friendly competition. Whether you’re placing bets through platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel or participating in a classic party pool, the excitement is palpable. The event starts at 7:00 p.m. ET on ABC and can also be live-streamed on Fubo, which is offering a free trial. This year, the host is none other than Conan O’Brien, the seasoned comedian and former late-night talk-show host, stepping in to guide the proceedings after Jimmy Kimmel’s multiple stints.
Best Picture: A Potentially Surprising Outcome
The Best Picture category is a hotly contested field, with "Anora" leading the pack at -200 odds. However, "Conclave" is a strong contender at +225, and for good reason. Directed by Edward Berger, "Conclave" is a gripping two-hour film that delves into the mystery and power struggles surrounding the selection of a new Pope after the previous one’s sudden death. The film boasts an impressive cast, including Ralph Fiennes, John Lithgow, Isabella Rossellini, and Stanley Tucci, and has already won the Screen Actors Guild for Best Picture. The reviews have been overwhelmingly positive, with Neil Simone’s Ebert.com review highlighting the film’s electrifying performances and stunning visuals. Despite its length, "The Brutalist" (+600) is another film worth considering. It is a unique and thought-provoking epic that explores the life of fictional Holocaust survivor László Tóth, played by Adrien Brody. The film’s groundbreaking storytelling and performances make it a strong sleeper pick, especially if you’re looking for a shot at plus-odds victory.
Best Director: A Tight Race
The Best Director category is shaping up to be a two-horse race between Sean Baker (-175) for "Anora" and Brady Corbet (+135) for "The Brutalist." Baker’s recent win at the Directors Guild gives him a slight edge, but Corbet’s film is a masterpiece that has already won the Golden Globe for Best Drama Film. "The Brutalist" is a 3-hour, 35-minute epic that could easily take home multiple awards. The film’s exploration of historical trauma, immigration, and personal growth through the lens of a celebrated architect is both profound and visually stunning. If you’re feeling adventurous, doubling down on Corbet, especially if you’re betting on "The Brutalist" to win Best Picture, might be a smart move. However, given the closeness of the race, it’s advisable to keep your bets conservative.
Best Actor: Adrien Brody’s Strong Lead
Adrien Brody is the odds-on favorite to win Best Actor for his role in "The Brutalist" at -250. Brody’s performance as László Tóth, a Holocaust survivor turned influential architect, is a tour de force. He has taken his character to unprecedented depths, evoking a wide range of emotions from joy to dread. Timothée Chalamet, who plays young Bob Dylan in "A Complete Unknown," is the closest competitor at +150. Chalamet’s portrayal is nearly perfect and has garnered him a BAFTA for Best Actor. The irony is that Chalamet is the same age as Brody was when he won the same award in 2003. While Chalamet’s performance is stellar, it seems the Academy is leaning heavily towards Brody’s more complex and emotionally resonant role. If you’re looking for a value bet, Chalamet could be worth considering, but Brody is the safer choice.
Best Actress: Demi Moore’s Inspirational Return
Demi Moore is the frontrunner for Best Actress at -250 for her performance in "The Substance." Moore’s comeback story has been nothing short of inspirational, and her portrayal of lawyer Rita has struck a chord with audiences and critics alike. The film’s themes of human connection and substance in life, coupled with Moore’s emotional and powerful acceptance speeches, make her the favorite. Mikey Madison, who plays Anora Mikheeva in "Anora," is a strong sleeper pick at +165. Madison’s performance as a sex worker navigating a tumultuous marriage is spellbinding, and her recent BAFTA win has opened the door for a potential upset. However, the Oscar buzz is heavily in Moore’s favor, and she seems to have this category locked down. Consider placing a modest bet on Madison if you’re feeling daring, but Moore is the safer choice.
Best Original Screenplay: Anora’s Gripping Tale
"Anora" is the odds-on favorite for Best Original Screenplay at -250. The film follows the beleaguered marriage of Anora Mikheeva, a sex worker, and Vanya Zakharov, the son of a Russian oligarch. The screenplay, written by Eliza Hittman, is a gripping tale that has earned the film numerous accolades. "A Real Pain" (+450) is a compelling sleeper pick, written and directed by Jesse Eisenberg. The film tells the story of two cousins who reunite after their grandmother’s death and embark on a pilgrimage to Poland, delving into the shadow of World War II. Eisenberg’s collective achievements in this film could very well earn him recognition from the Academy. While "Anora" is the safer bet, "A Real Pain" offers a more intriguing narrative and a chance for a surprise win.
Visual and Technical Categories: Unmissable Highlights
The visual and technical categories often see some of the most stunning and innovative work recognized. "The Wild Robot" (-340) is the clear favorite for Best Animated Feature, having dominated precursor awards and become a fan favorite. "The Brutalist" (-340) is also a strong contender for Best Cinematography, Best Original Score, and Best Visual Effects. The film’s breathtaking imagery, meticulously composed music, and groundbreaking visual effects make it a worthy frontrunner in multiple categories. "Wicked" (-2000) leads the pack for Best Costume Design and "Nosferatu" (+1400) for Best Makeup and Hairstyling. "Conclave" (-165) is the favorite for Best Film Editing, while "Dune Part Two" (-1000) is a strong contender for Best Visual Effects, given the critical acclaim it received for its visual prowess despite not winning in major categories. Whether you’re a casual viewer or a die-hard film enthusiast, these categories are sure to provide some of the most memorable moments of the evening.
