The NFL Draft Betting Landscape in 2025
We are just seven weeks away from the 2025 NFL Draft, and the betting market is experiencing a significant delay in the posting of draft-related wagers. In the early days of legalized sports betting, many sportsbooks were enthusiastic about offering a wide array of draft betting options. Historically, bettors could wager on individual player over/under selections, head-to-head matchups, and specialized markets like "How many quarterbacks will be drafted in the first round?" However, the early enthusiasm has waned due to the sharp, well-informed betting community.
The Bettor’s Edge and the Books’ Cautious Approach
The primary reason for this caution is the high frequency of sharp bets that often favor the bettors. In 2022, for instance, Quay Walker’s over/under draft position was initially set at 40.5 by one sportsbook. Within days, sharp action pushed this number down to 33.5, and the Green Bay Packers selected Walker at 22. This trend has not gone unnoticed by the sportsbooks, leading to a more cautious approach. As one Las Vegas executive confided to FOX Sports, "We get destroyed every year." While this might be a slight exaggeration, it underscores the significant financial risk associated with draft betting.
Current Market Dynamics
Currently, most sportsbooks are only offering the first overall pick market, along with which team will make the pick. A few shops are allowing bets on which teams certain players will be drafted by, but the options are limited. This is a stark contrast to the 2024 draft, where Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams was a heavy -2000 favorite to be the first overall pick. This year, the top selection is far from a foregone conclusion, with a genuine debate surrounding the top candidates.
Contenders for the Top Pick
Cam Ward, the quarterback from a less prominent program, is currently the odds-on favorite at -250 at DraftKings Sportsbook. He is followed by Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter at +190, Colorado dual threat Travis Hunter at +750, and Shedeur Sanders at +1200, who is also from Colorado. If you’re feeling adventurous, there’s always the 70-1 long shot, Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart, but most experts advise against it.
The Volatility of the Market
The lack of a clear favorite is contributing to the market’s volatility. Ward, despite his current leading position, is not the most consistently favored candidate. During the college season, both Hunter and Sanders were preferred choices at various points. The absence of a clear generational quarterback like Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, or Caleb Williams means that the market is highly unpredictable. As one professional bettor noted, "There’s no uniformity at all. You could pull up three different mock drafts, and they could all have a different guy at No. 1."
A Strategic Bet on Abdul Carter
Despite the market’s volatility, some bettors see value in specific players. One professional bettor recommended Abdul Carter as a strong contender. "We like Carter," he said. "You can find 2/1 right now, and that’s not a bad pop. He’s the type of guy that changes your entire defense. We watched him every game at Penn State this year, and he was the best player on the field." Carter’s performance in the College Football Playoff, where he played hurt but still dominated, further underscores his potential. "He’s a can’t-miss guy and none of the quarterbacks are," the bettor added, emphasizing Carter’s unique value in an otherwise uncertain draft class.
As the 2025 NFL Draft approaches, the cautious approach of the sportsbooks and the unpredictable nature of the market create a unique and exciting betting environment. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or a casual fan, the next few weeks promise to be filled with anticipation and potential opportunities.
