The NBA’s One-and-Done Rule: A 20-Year Journey
Nearly two decades ago, the NBA implemented a significant rule change that has reshaped the sport’s landscape. The collective bargaining agreement mandated that players must be at least 19 years old and one year removed from high school to be eligible for the NBA Draft. This rule, known colloquially as the "one-and-done" rule, has become a defining feature of modern college basketball, with many top young talents playing a single collegiate season before declaring for the NBA. Prominent names like Carmelo Anthony, Anthony Davis, and Zion Williamson have all followed this path, and Duke’s Cooper Flagg appears headed in the same direction.
Imagining a Different NBA Timeline
But what if the one-and-done rule had always been in place, and high school players were never allowed to jump straight to the NBA? To explore this hypothetical, our team at FOX Sports delved into the past to determine where some of the most notable high school-to-NBA players might have ended up if they had to attend college. This list is based on supported research and excludes players who opted for other professional paths, such as Europe or the G-League.
Tyson Chandler: A UCLA Legacy
Tyson Chandler, a prep superstar from Dominguez High School in Compton, California, would likely have joined the UCLA Bruins. Chandler, a Parade All-American and McDonald’s All-American, grew up as a UCLA fan and had close ties to former Bruins players like Baron Davis and Earl Watson. Although he considered other schools like Arizona, Syracuse, Memphis, Kentucky, and Michigan, Chandler ultimately declared for the 2001 NBA Draft, where he was selected second overall by the Los Angeles Clippers and traded to the Chicago Bulls.
Jermaine O’Neal: A Gamecock’s Dream
Jermaine O’Neal, a South Carolina native, would have likely donned the South Carolina Gamecocks jersey had he not opted for the NBA. After a standout senior season at Eau Claire High School, where he was named a McDonald’s All-American, O’Neal declared for the 1996 NBA Draft and was drafted 17th overall by the Portland Trail Blazers. His son, Jermaine O’Neal Jr., confirmed in a recent interview that his father was "about to go to South Carolina before he went to the league." O’Neal’s decision to skip college marked the beginning of a 19-year NBA career that saw him become a six-time All-Star and one of the league’s dominant centers.
Shawn Kemp: A Brief Stay at Kentucky
Shawn Kemp, a star from Concord High School in Elkhart, Indiana, originally committed to the University of Kentucky. However, his college career was short-lived as he was required to sit out the 1988-89 season due to academic reasons. Kemp’s time at Kentucky was marred by off-court incidents, including the theft of a teammate’s jewelry, which led to his transfer to community college. Despite this, Kemp declared for the 1989 NBA Draft and was selected 17th overall by the Seattle SuperSonics. Kemp’s 14-year NBA career included six All-Star appearances and a legacy as one of the most explosive and versatile big men of his era.
Amar’e Stoudemire: A Memphis Tiger
Amar’e Stoudemire, a late bloomer who didn’t start playing organized basketball until he was 14, would have played for John Calipari and the Memphis Tigers. After a dominant senior season at Cypress Creek High School in Orlando, Florida, Stoudemire was named a McDonald’s All-American and committed to Memphis. However, he later decommitted and declared for the 2002 NBA Draft, where he was selected ninth overall by the Phoenix Suns. Stoudemire’s 14-year NBA career saw him win Rookie of the Year honors, become a six-time All-Star, and earn multiple All-NBA team selections.
Tracy McGrady: A Wildcat at Kentucky
Tracy McGrady, who played his high school basketball at Auburndale High School in Florida and Mount Zion Christian Academy in North Carolina, would have joined the Kentucky Wildcats. McGrady’s high school career was marked by numerous accolades, including being named a McDonald’s All-American, USA Today High School Basketball Player of the Year, and North Carolina’s Mr. Basketball. Despite the accolades, McGrady opted to skip college and was selected with the ninth overall pick in the 1997 NBA Draft by the Toronto Raptors. McGrady’s NBA career was illustrious, with seven All-Star appearances and two scoring titles, and he remains a legendary figure in the sport.
Dwight Howard: A Tar Heel’s Dream
Dwight Howard, a dominant presence at Southwest Atlanta Christian Academy, would have attended the University of North Carolina. Howard was a McDonald’s All-American and Gatorade National Player of the Year who declared for the 2004 NBA Draft and was selected first overall by the Orlando Magic. Had he attended UNC, Howard would have joined a talented roster that included Sean May, Rashad McCants, and Raymond Felton, forming one of the most formidable college teams in recent history. Instead, Howard’s professional career has seen him become a three-time All-NBA first-team member and a multiple-time All-Star, solidifying his status as one of the league’s most dominant centers.
The Impact of College on NBA Icons
The hypothetical college careers of these players offer a fascinating glimpse into what might have been. Tyson Chandler at UCLA, Jermaine O’Neal at South Carolina, Shawn Kemp at Kentucky, Amar’e Stoudemire at Memphis, Tracy McGrady at Kentucky, and Dwight Howard at North Carolina would have added immense value to their respective programs. Their college experiences could have shaped their development as players and influenced the trajectory of their NBA careers. As the one-and-done rule continues to shape the landscape of college basketball, these hypothetical scenarios remind us of the significant impact that high school-to-NBA players have had on the sport.
