The Las Vegas Raiders and the Quarterback Market
Late Friday night, after the Las Vegas Raiders made a surprising move by acquiring Geno Smith from the Seattle Seahawks, a high-ranking executive in the AFC offered a cautionary note about the quarterback landscape. "I wouldn’t cross the Raiders off yet," he remarked, adding, "Let’s see what happens between now and [the draft]." This sentiment reflects a broader lesson learned across the NFL last season. The Atlanta Falcons, for instance, signed Kirk Cousins to a massive deal, leading most insiders to assume the Falcons would not draft a quarterback. However, they shocked the league by selecting Michael Penix with the eighth overall pick and then benching Cousins late in the season. This sequence of events has shown that when it comes to addressing the quarterback position, NFL teams are willing to take unprecedented and often unpredictable actions, especially if the franchise owner is highly motivated. As a result, Shedeur Sanders, despite the Raiders’ trade for Smith, remains a viable option for the team with the sixth overall pick.
The New Normal in Quarterback Pursuit
An NFC general manager highlighted the new norm in quarterback talent evaluation, emphasizing that predictability and logic are no longer reliable. "It’s tough to guess where any quarterbacks go these days," he explained. "The planet seemed shocked when Atlanta picked a quarterback last year. And people were surprised when Carson Beck chose to transfer to Miami instead of entering the NFL, and when Quinn Ewers opted for the NFL over NIL deals." This unpredictability extends to college players, who can now instantly change the landscape by entering the transfer portal or weighing the financial benefits of NIL agreements. For Sanders, this means his draft stock could be influenced by a variety of factors, including how the Raiders handle their relationship with Smith over the next seven weeks. Key signs to watch include the details of Smith’s contract extension, potential trade-out scenarios, and the Raiders’ level of interest in Sanders shown through visits or workouts. If offensive coordinator Chip Kelly and quarterbacks coach Greg Olson attend Colorado’s pro day, it could be a strong indicator that the Raiders are still considering Sanders.
The Impact of NIL on Player Perception
The rise of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) agreements has introduced a new layer of complexity to the draft evaluation process. A longtime evaluator noted an increasing trend of grousing about players who have earned significant NIL money appearing less focused or overconfident. "Some guys have already gotten money and they may not feel like the future of their lives is hanging on interviews with teams anymore, or they might even think they’ve already ‘made it,’” he observed. This perception can lead to negative opinions, with some evaluators automatically associating wealth and confidence with entitlement. However, another evaluator pointed out that this isn’t always the case. "There was a time when I had to ask the question, ‘What’s going to happen with [a player] when he gets a bunch of money?’ Now we see what’s going to happen. They show us. Some kids, you sit down with them and find out they haven’t touched a dime of their NIL money and it’s all in the bank. Others, you see it’s all been spent on cars and jewelry or whatever."
Racial bias can also play a role in these perceptions. Caleb Williams, for example, faced criticism for showcasing his NIL earnings on social media, while Drake Maye’s frugality was noted positively. For Shedeur Sanders, being the son of a famous NFL father and having a significant amount of NIL wealth adds another dimension to the evaluation. Some scouts acknowledge that his personality and background can influence their views, but ultimately, the key is to provide a fair assessment. As one scout put it, "Sometimes a guy just rubs people the wrong way for whatever reason, and you’ll talk s about him. But if he’s a good football player, whether you like him or not as a personality doesn’t mean s. That’s just a small part of the picture."
The Talent Debate: Sanders vs. Ward
Among the 12 NFL evaluators polled, there is no consensus on Shedeur Sanders’ draft stock. All agreed that, from a talent and ceiling perspective, he is a notch below Miami quarterback Cam Ward. However, opinions on intangibles varied widely. Some evaluators praised Sanders’ toughness and leadership, seeing him as a player who can overcome challenges and continue to compete. Others noted his intelligence and the fact that he has already mastered a true pro-style offense, making him an attractive prospect. Despite these positive attributes, there is significant disagreement on his place in the draft. This is partly due to differing views on his ceiling and partly because of the desperation factor among teams with severe quarterback needs.
Sanders’ Draft Stock: A Wide Range of Opinions
The range of opinions on Sanders’ draft stock is vast. One evaluator suggested he could be a top-10 pick, while another believed he might fall out of the first round entirely. Some teams are expected to stick to their second- and third-round grades, but the pressure of addressing their quarterback needs and the potential backlash from Deion Sanders if his son is overlooked could sway some teams. Another scout noted that Sanders’ success might heavily depend on finding the right fit, similar to how Bo Nix thrived under Sean Payton. "When that right fit works, it can really work," he said. "But all things equal, you start at zero and want big frame, big arm, and big athletic profile. Shedeur doesn’t check all those boxes, so it matters more for him to find the exact right fit."
The Mystery Persists
The uncertainty surrounding Shedeur Sanders’ draft stock is palpable. Two evaluators expressed exasperation with the noise and volatility of the situation. "It depends who you talk to. He’s a bit polarizing," one said. "It’s too volatile and it’s hard to believe what’s true," added another. Colorado’s pro day, scheduled for March 18-21 as part of the broader Big 12 pro days, promises to either clarify his prospects or amplify the debate. For teams like the Raiders, the next few weeks will be crucial in determining their strategy. The pro day will be a pivotal moment for Sanders, providing NFL evaluators with their first meaningful look at his throwing abilities since the draft process began. As the draft approaches, the mystery of where Shedeur Sanders will land continues to grow, reflecting the complex and unpredictable nature of the quarterback market in the modern NFL.
